Tropical Depression may form in Caribbean - NHC

NEW YORK, Aug 2 (Reuters) - There were no signs of a tropical cyclone in the Caribbean Sea early Thursday, but a tropical depression could form over the next day or so, the National Hurricane Center said in an outlook.

In a 5:30 a.m. EDT outlook, the NHC said showers, thunderstorms and squalls associated with a tropical wave and an area of low pressure were spreading over the eastern Caribbean.

The system is centered over the Windward Islands, which include Barbados, Martinique, St. Lucia, St. Vincent and the Grenadines, Grenada, and Trinidad and Tobago.

The NHC said the system "still has some potential to become a tropical depression" ... as it continues moving westward near 20 miles per hour.

A reconnaissance plane will investigate the area again today if necessary, the NHC said.

All weather models predict the system will remain south of Cuba and Haiti over the next week before slamming into Honduras, Guatemala, Belize or the Yucatan Peninsula in Mexico.

Two of the weather models show the storm crossing the Yucatan and the Bay of Campeche in the southern Gulf of Mexico before striking central Mexico. The Cantarell Complex of Mexican oil fields lies beneath the Bay of Campeche. It is one of the most productive oil fields in the world, supplying about two thirds of Mexico's crude oil output.

The energy market watches for tropical storms because they can disrupt U.S. oil and natural gas production and refining if they enter the Gulf of Mexico.

Commodities traders also track tropical storms because they can damage crops in Florida and along the Gulf Coast.

Separately, the NHC noted an area of cloudiness and showers over the northeast Gulf of Mexico associated with a broad trough of low pressure. The agency said there were no signs of organization but "some slow development is possible over the next day or two."

The NHC will name the next tropical storm Dean.