UPDATE 1-U.S. not stalked by recession -IMF chief economist
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WASHINGTON, April 5 (Reuters) - The United States is not being stalked by recession and, on the contrary, its economy and that of the rest of the world currently enjoy pretty bright prospects, the International Monetary Fund said on Thursday.
"We do not think that the U.S. is heading toward a recession," IMF chief economist Simon Johnson told a news conference to discuss the first chapters of the fund's semi-annual World Economic Outlook, which will be released in full on April 11.
"Our message on the U.S. economy and world economy is really quite positive," he said, adding that the main weak spot in the United States was its cooling housing sector.
Worries that the slowing U.S. economy could slip into recession were heightened in February by former Fed chief Alan Greenspan's comments that a U.S. recession was possible.
Johnson pointed to new IMF research that found that major economic slowdowns are generally not due to specific developments in any one country, even if that country is the United States, the world's largest economy.
"Global growth typically declines sharply only when there are synchronized adverse events that affect many countries at the same time," he added.
Still, the IMF research does warn that if the slowdown underway in the United States, induced by a correction in the housing market, spreads to consumer spending and business investment, it could have larger cross-border repercussions.
Preliminary IMF figures last month put U.S. growth at 2.6 percent in 2007 and 3.0 percent next year, both 0.3 percentage points lower than the fund's previous forecast in September.
Johnson said the new IMF research showed that a 1 percent decline in U.S. economic growth could knock an average 0.16 percentage point off global growth.
"That is a pretty small effect," Johnson said, adding, "The one percent is not what we're saying is going to happen and is actually far beyond what we think is a likely scenario."
"Even with large effects from the housing sector, it doesn't have a big effect on the global economy, which is counter to what people suppose," he added.
Johnson said most other economies outside of the United States were in "good shape" and are being well managed.
"The rest of the world has become more insulated from what happens in the United States," the chief economist said, pointing to the rise of China and India, two of the world's fastest-growing economies.
"The U.S. is a significant part of the world economy -- between one-quarter to one-third -- but it is not by any means the whole story," Johnson said, "At the moment the U.S. has some pressures, a little bit of a slowdown, but we think it will rebound."
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