Search for water gets harder in Southwest

By Nick Carey

FLAGSTAFF, Arizona (Reuters) - Like many towns in this part of the arid U.S. Southwest, Flagstaff faces a never-ending challenge in its search for water, and it is getting harder.

"Eight years of drought conditions and a growing population haven't helped," said Randy Pellatz, the assistant director of utilities for the city of Flagstaff.

The heavily forested, mountain town of Flagstaff has grown to 62,000 people from 45,000 in 1990, straining its water resources. Upper Lake Mary, a man-made reservoir that provides up to 40 percent of the town's water needs of 11 million gallons a day, is down to 18 percent of normal levels.

Mark Shiery of Flagstaff's fire department said the area is up to three years behind normal precipitation levels, heightening the risk of forest fire in this high desert town.

"Wild fire is the single biggest threat we face," he said.

It is a stark puzzle: how to provide water for a growing population in desert or near-desert conditions. Then add in the long drought.

"As the population rises in the Southwest, the water system is on a slippery slope toward breaking point," said Mark Svoboda, a climatologist at the U.S. National Drought Mitigation Center at the University of Nebraska-Lincoln.

THIRSTY NOW, BUT BOOM ONLY BEGUN?

The U.S. Census Bureau projects California's population will rise to more than 46 million by 2030 from 36.5 million now, while Arizona and Nevada will nearly double to 10.7 million and 4.3 million people, respectively.

Arizona already is the fastest-growing U.S. state, up nearly 70 percent from 1990 to about 6.2 million in 2006.

The projected growth will put further pressure -- from cities and agriculture -- on the Colorado River, the region's lifeline. The river is reduced to a trickle when it reaches the Gulf of California in Mexico.

"Right now, no one's getting any surplus water. But there are no shortages yet," said Bob Walsh, Lower Colorado Region spokesman of the U.S. Bureau of Reclamation, the government agency overseeing water rights in the 17 western U.S. states.

"That should continue for a few years before we begin to stretch the existing supply," Walsh said.

Some scientists warn global warming will worsen the situation. A study published in the journal Science in April projected that the Southwest, with its fast-growing cities, could by 2030 face baking Dust Bowl conditions like those that blew away topsoils in the Great Plains a hundred years before.

"BLUE GOLD" FOR DESERT BOOM TOWNS