UDPATE 2-Mexico's inflation jumps in early March

Mon Mar 24, 2008 1:20pm EDT
 
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MEXICO CITY, March 24 (Reuters) - Mexico's 12-month inflation jumped unexpectedly in the first half of March to 4.24 percent, putting more pressure on the central bank to delay cutting interest rates despite fears of an economic slowdown.

Mexican consumer prices MXCPIF=ECI rose 0.48 percent during the first two weeks of this month, driven by price increases for agricultural products and in the tourism industry, the central bank said on Monday.

That pushed the 12-month rate up more than half a percentage point, from 3.72 percent in February.

Closely watched core inflation MXCPIH=ECI, which strips out some volatile food and energy prices, was 0.33 percent during the first half of the month.

Experts in a Reuters poll ECONMX had predicted headline inflation at 0.17 percent and a 0.19 percent rise in core prices.

Mexico's central bank is under pressure to cut interest rates to stimulate Mexico's economy, expected to suffer from a slowdown this year in the United States. But higher inflation gives the bank less room to maneuver.

The early-March price data pushed annual inflation above the 4 percent limit the central bank considers acceptable, although it was still within its forecast range for the year.

Yields on Mexican interest rate futures TII: rose after the news, indicating that investors were scaling back expectations that rates could come down soon.

The June futures contract TIIM8 on the benchmark TIIE interest rate gained 4 basis points to 7.83.

Mexico's peso MEX01 MXN= traded 0.50 percent stronger at 10.6650 per dollar after the data was released.

"The inflation data diminished the possibility of a cut in the Bank of Mexico's rate," said a peso trader in Mexico City.

Many Mexico investors have bet the central bank will make two interest cuts this year. Lower interest rates in Mexico would make peso debt less attractive to foreign investors.

The bank expects inflation to rise to as high as 4.5 percent this year before possibly declining to the bank's 3 percent target by the third quarter of 2009.

The economy is seen growing less than 3 percent this year, compared with 3.3 percent in 2007.

Inflation across Latin America has jumped over the past few months as rapidly developing economies like India and China boost global demand for food commodities. At the same time, increasing amounts of grains are being diverted to make biofuels.  Continued...

 
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