Leading index growth rate, level slip: ECRI

Fri Oct 19, 2007 1:10pm EDT
 
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NEW YORK (Reuters) - A weekly gauge of future U.S. economic growth slipped in the latest week due to higher interest rates, and its annualized growth rate declined, a research group said on Friday.

The Economic Cycle Research Institute, a New York-based independent forecasting group, said its Weekly Leading Index (WLI) slipped to 139.9 in the week ended October 12 from a revised 140.4 in the prior week, originally reported at 141.5.

The negative impact of higher interest rates and lower industrial commodity prices was offset by higher stock prices, said Melinda Hubman, research associate at ECRI.

The annualized growth rate in the index slipped to a negative 0.4 percent from a negative 0.3 percent in the prior week.

The prior week's figure was initially reported as a 1 percent increase. ECRI Managing Director Lakshman Achuthan said a major factor in the revision stemmed from ECRI's analysis of revised Federal Reserve data which indicated slower growth in the money supply.

ECRI analyst Hubman said: "With WLI (annualized) growth now hovering near one-year low, a broad-based slowdown in U.S. economic growth is likely but a recession is not."

 

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