PREVIEW-BOJ to keep rates this week, watch more data

Tue Jun 12, 2007 4:43am EDT
 
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*What: Bank of Japan policy meeting

*When: June 14-15, policy decision likely around 1-2 p.m. (0400-0500 GMT) June 15

*Key overnight call rate target seen staying at 0.5 percent

By Hideyuki Sano

TOKYO, June 12 (Reuters) - The Bank of Japan is seen keeping interest rates on hold this week as it awaits more proof that the Japanese economy will keep expanding solidly and consumer prices will rise, enabling it to hike rates in months ahead.

Recent economic data has generally been solid, underscoring the financial market view that the central bank will notch up rates sometime in the July-September quarter, most likely in August.

BOJ officials have also said the economy has been growing in line with the bank's forecasts, so there is no reason to change its line on raising interest rates gradually.

Many market players take that to mean a pace of roughly one rate hike every half year or so, making August a favourite after the BOJ's last rate hike in February.

"I don't think the BOJ will have enough reasons for raising rates just yet," said Akihiko Inoue, a market analyst at Mizuho Investors Securities. "They will probably raise rates in August after seeing April-June GDP figures."

Economic data in the past month has supported the view that the economy is growing steadily, mostly in line with the BOJ's view.

A strong corporate survey last week eased concern that capital spending, a major engine of the economy, may be losing steam, while the unemployment rate hit a nine-year low of 3.8 percent in April, which may signal that a tighter job market could lead to rises in wages and push up prices.

The fall in consumer prices also eased to 0.1 percent in April from 0.3 percent in March.

Many economists -- including those at the BOJ -- think consumer prices will start rising again later this year.

Anecdotal evidence is also mounting that more companies are willing to raise prices. McDonald's Japan (2702.Q), which became a symbol of Japan's deflation debacle as it cut its hamburger prices sharply more than a decade ago, now plans to raise prices in big cities.

Some BOJ officials also said consumers may no longer feel prices are falling, as CPI falls in recent months are largely due to drops in a limited number of goods prices, such as flat TVs.

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