TREASURIES-Sit tight in Asia before Fed meeting

Tue Aug 5, 2008 12:06am EDT
 
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* Fed seen leaving rates steady; dissenting votes in focus

* Investors reluctant to buy before 10- and 30-year auctions

By Rika Otsuka

TOKYO, Aug 5 (Reuters) - U.S. Treasuries were little changed in quiet Asian trade on Tuesday, as investors awaited the outcome of a Federal Reserve meeting later in the day for clues to the future path of monetary policy.

The U.S. central bank is widely seen leaving the federal funds rate at 2.0 percent due to elevated risks to growth and inflation.

Investors will closely study the post-meeting statement as some think it will suggest that the Fed's concerns over downside risks to the economy outweigh worries about inflationary pressure.

Still, market players expect the Fed's next move will be an interest rate hike rather than a cut as energy costs and inflation expectations stay beyond the Fed's comfort zone.

Government data showed the previous day the U.S. core PCE price index, the Fed's favourite guage of inflation, rose a more-than-expected 0.3 percent in June. The core year-over-year rate was 2.3 percent. That sparked selling in Treasuries.

"The focal point of this Fed meeting is how many board members will dissent from an expected decision to hold rates," said Yasutoshi Nagai, senior economist at Daiwa Securities SMBC.

"I expect there will be two dissenting voters," Nagai said. "If so, the market will think the Fed is hawkish. That is likely to prompt investors to sell Treasuries."

Dallas Fed President Richard Fisher has dissented with the majority rate decision at the past four rate-setting meetings.

Fisher, Philadelphia Fed President Charles Plosser and Minneapolis Fed President Gary Stern have been keeping up their anti-inflation rhetoric.

U.S. short-term interest rate futures are now pricing in a quarter-percentage-point interest rate hike to 2.25 percent before year-end. FEDWATCH

Benchmark 10-year notes US10YT=RR were unchanged in price from late U.S. trade on Monday to yield 3.968 percent.

Two-year notes US2YT=RR were also unchanged in price to yield 2.531 percent.

September 10-year futures TYv1 rose 3.5/32 to 114-30.5/32.  Continued...

 
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