UPDATE 4-Crisis sends Japan into recession, outlook bleak

Mon Nov 17, 2008 2:27am EST
 
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(For more stories on the financial crisis click [ID:nCRISIS]) (Adds quote, election details)

By Leika Kihara

TOKYO, Nov 17 (Reuters) - Japan slid into its first recession in seven years in the third quarter as the financial crisis curbed demand for Japanese exports, with some analysts warning the country may be headed into its longest recession on record.

The 0.1 percent contraction in July-September GDP confirmed the global financial crisis has sabotaged growth in yet another major economy. The euro zone is also in recession, using the common definition of two consecutive quarters of contraction, and the United States is seen following. [ID:nLE536930]

Some economists warned Japan could face a record four quarters in a row of recession, and Economy Minister Kaoru Yosano similarly warned of increasingly tough times ahead.

"The downtrend in the economy will continue for the time being as global growth slows," Yosano told a news conference.

"We need to bear in mind that economic conditions could worsen further as the U.S. and European financial crisis deepens, worries of economic downturn heighten and stock and foreign exchange markets make big swings."

The European and Japanese recessions underscore the task facing world leaders who backed on Saturday a plan to combat the global economic crisis, but failed to impress markets seeking specific measures. [ID:nG7G8]

Market mayhem since October, not included yet in the published gross domestic product (GDP) figures, adds to the gloomy outlook for Japan, the world's second-largest economy.

Tokyo's Nikkei share average .N225 has fallen by a quarter since the start of October, and the yen JPY= spiked to a 13-year high against the dollar last month, further hurting exporters and surely curbing consumption.

Bank of Japan Deputy Governor Kiyohiko Nishimura warned that the market mayhem was not over.

"Due to strong awareness of counterparty risks in the dollar markets, the function of these markets is declining and Japan's financial market is also becoming unstable," Nishimura said at a seminar on Japanese and French financial markets.

Japan's gross domestic product figure translated into an annualised fall of 0.4 percent, lagging a consensus market forecast for a 0.3 percent expansion, government data showed.

A YEAR OF PAIN?

Japan's second-quarter contraction was revised in Monday's data to a larger 0.9 percent slide, the biggest such drop in seven years, and some said GDP could slide for a full year.

"The risk of Japan posting a third or fourth straight quarterly contraction is growing, given the fact that we can no longer rely on exports as overseas economies are slowing down due to the spread of the financial crisis," said Takeshi Minami, chief economist at Norinchukin Research Institute.  Continued...

 

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