* IBC-Br index up 0.62 pct in Q4 from Q3
* Official Q4 GDP statistics due March 1
By Silvio Cascione and Camila Moreira
SAO PAULO, Feb 20 Brazil's fragile economic
recovery lost steam in December, rounding out a second straight
year of frustrating growth and casting doubts on a steady
rebound going forward.
The central bank's IBC-Br economic activity index
rose 0.26 percent in December from November in
seasonally adjusted terms, the bank said on Wednesday.
The index climbed 0.57 percent in November from October, up
from a previously reported 0.40 percent.
The numbers suggest Latin America's largest economy grew
less than 1 percent last year despite record-low interest rates
and billions of dollars in tax cuts and credit incentives
enacted by President Dilma Rousseff's government.
Stagnant industrial output and a surprise drop in retail
sales were a drag on Brazil's economy in December, economists
Brazil's rate of growth has been expected to triple in 2013
on prospects of stronger investments. But that forecast seems
increasingly unlikely now, and could be further endangered by
quickening inflation and possible interest rate rises.
"I still think we can grow by around 3 percent this year,
but this may not happen, especially if the central bank confirms
the interest rate hikes priced in the local yield curve for this
year," said Vladimir Caramaschi, chief economist at Credit
Agricole CIB in Sao Paulo.
Yields on interest rate futures dropped as traders
pared bets on rate hikes later this year. The curve still priced
in a rise of more than 100 basis points in the benchmark Selic
lending rate in 2013.
The central bank cut the Selic rate ten straight times
through October 2012 to a record low of 7.25 percent, pledging
to keep it low for a "prolonged" period to bolster growth. After
inflation hit its fastest pace in nearly eight years in January,
the central bank president, Alexandre Tombini, said the bank
could "adjust" its policy.
The IBC-Br index rose a seasonally adjusted 0.62 percent in
the fourth quarter, down from 1.12 percent expansion in the
prior quarter. In 2012, the IBC-Br index grew a modest 1.64
percent without seasonal adjustments.
Economists closely watch the IBC-Br, regarding it as a proxy
for official gross domestic product data. However, in the third
quarter the index estimated overall economic expansion to be
twice as fast as final statistics showed.
Some local economists said December IBC-Br numbers still
supported the view of a gradual economic recovery.
"If we pay close attention to it, we'll see that economic
activity expanded about 2.1 percent in the fourth quarter over
the same period a year before," said Rafael Leao, an economist
at Austin Rating in Sao Paulo. "That means we went back to the
same pace we saw before 2012."
"We'll continue to have decent credit supply and a strong
labor market in 2013," Leao added. "The global economy should
not be as weak as it was last year, too."
The median estimate of 18 analysts surveyed by Reuters was
for a rise of 0.40 percent over November. The poll was conducted
before the government reported a surprise drop in retail sales
in December on Tuesday.
The index, a gauge of activity in the farming, manufacturing
and services sectors, rose 1.19 percent over the same month a
year ago, without seasonal adjustments.
Brazil's national statistics agency, IBGE, is expected to
release official 2012 gross domestic product data on March 1.