FACTBOX - TeliaSonera's future after France Tel pullout

Mon Jun 30, 2008 11:40am EDT
 
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STOCKHOLM (Reuters) - France Telecom's withdrawal on Monday of a plan to acquire TeliaSonera (TLSN.ST) leaves the Nordic telecoms operator where it was two months ago -- as a standalone company with a mission to cut costs.

But the affair has shed light on how Sweden, which owns 37.3 percent of the firm, could react to any future bid attempts.

Following are some of the key factors for TeliaSonera's future and analysts' overviews of the main scenarios for the firm.

THE BID ATTEMPT -- Constrained by price

France Telecom declared its interest in TeliaSonera in mid-April and on June 5 unveiled an indicative cash-and-share bid worth $40 billion (20 billion pounds) as of last Friday. In the bid's favour were the absence of any other predators and the Swedish government's interest in selling off all, or at least much, of its TeliaSonera stake as part of a privatisation drive.

France Telecom was interested in gaining a wider strategic presence, particularly in emerging markets. TeliaSonera has several profitable holdings via associate companies in Russia and Turkey as well as in other emerging markets.

But the French company, which has pledged to keep a limit on its borrowings, was constrained by price and the TeliaSonera board, along with the Swedish government, rejected the bid. TeliaSonera said on Monday that as the terms had not improved significantly after talks, the plan still substantially undervalued TeliaSonera.

WHAT SWEDEN WANTS -- Avoiding political trouble

TeliaSonera is one of six holdings in a privatisation plan unveiled after the Moderate-led government came to power in 2006. Two of the goals -- the sale of a stake in exchange owner OMX (NDAQ.O) and of vodka maker Vin & Sprit VSG.UL -- have been achieved. The government's plan calls for holdings in all six firms to have been sold before the next election in 2010.

The Moderates will want to avoid any deal that attract public criticism. One benchmark that analysts have cited is the price, adjusted for dividends, at which Sweden in 2000 first sold Telia, the forerunner of TeliaSonera.

Based on that, they see Sweden aiming for a price of closer to 65 Swedish crowns per share than the roughly 55-crown value of the France Telecom proposal. Thousands of Swedish investors lost money in the Telia IPO as the share price crumbled during the bursting of the dot-com bubble.

SCENARIO 1 -- TeliaSonera Stays On Its Own

TeliaSonera has long argued it is viable as a stand-alone firm and it repeated this on Monday: "TeliaSonera is a strong business with excellent growth prospects in its own right," TeliaSonera Chairman Tom von Weymarn said.

Under this scenario, Sweden must pursue its privatisation goal either through a strategic stake sale to another industry player at a later date or via a public offering.

Analysts say Sweden can simply wait to pick a better time to sell its shares, although by that reasoning it has left itself to some extent hostage to the market's fortune.

Swedish Financial Markets Minister Mats Odell said on Monday he was convinced TeliaSonera would be part of an expected consolidation, saying there were interested parties.  Continued...

 

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