Shoppers to cut back more after Christmas

By Brad Dorfman

CHICAGO (Reuters) - U.S. consumers, who have already sharply reduced spending for the holiday shopping season, are likely to cut back even more after Christmas, a survey said on Monday.

But sales during the key holiday season itself, while still down significantly, might not drop as sharply for retailers as it appeared earlier this month, said Britt Beemer, founder and chief executive officer of America's Research Group, which conducted the survey.

A total of 44 percent of consumers surveyed by America's Research Group said they planned to cut back spending further after the holidays. That number would typically be in the low-to-mid 20s, Beemer said.

Retailers generally look forward to an annual boost in spending early in the year when U.S. consumers receive income tax refunds. But Beemer said the survey results indicate they can no longer count on that benefit in 2009, with consumers likely to use the refund for things like paying off debt.

"What it tells you is four out of nine families are going to cut back further after Christmas, which means you are going to see no impact next year from income tax refunds," Beemer said.

The results were part of a series of questions America's Research asked for Reuters in its weekly holiday survey.

U.S. retailers are facing what is shaping up to be the worst holiday shopping season in close to two decades as a recession and mounting job losses cut household budgets.

Beemer has forecast a 3.5 percent drop in sales from last year, though he said on Monday that he will likely revise that forecast to a decline of about 2.7 percent to 2.9 percent this week, as sharp discounting by retailers could spur more shopping than he had expected.

Meanwhile, consumers continue to find plenty of things to buy, though many are waiting until the last minute to shop in hopes of getting better deals.

Only 12.7 percent of the 1,002 people surveyed said they have had trouble finding gift items they want. Slightly more than 21 percent said store shelves looked "picked over," while 78.6 percent said there was plenty of merchandise.

But a majority -- 57.7 percent -- said the shopping experience is less pleasurable this year due to the tough economic climate.

One category selling a bit better than expected might be gift cards, Beemer said, noting that 52 percent of consumers said they will give gift cards, up from 44 percent who said they would give gift cards in an earlier survey.

Some consumers are turning to gift cards as a last resort because they cannot figure out what else to buy, he said.

In other findings, 53.5 percent of those surveyed said they are eating out when they shop and 46.5 percent are eating at home.

The survey was conducted Saturday and Sunday and has a margin of error of plus or minus 3.8 percent.

(Editing by Gerald E. McCormick)