New jobless claims seen back above 500,000: Gallup

WASHINGTON (Reuters) - The number of U.S. workers submitting first-time applications for unemployment benefits probably moved back above the 500,000 mark last week, according to a Gallup poll, after a sharp drop the prior week.

Gallup said its survey suggested jobless claims for the week ended January 3 were likely to exceed the consensus estimate, with the four-week average of claims probably beating 2008's highest reading of 558,000.

Analysts polled by Reuters forecast new applications for state unemployment benefits rising to 540,000 after dropping to 492,000 the previous week. The Labor Department will release the jobless claims data on Thursday.

Gallup chief economist Dennis Jacobe said while a number of variables as such as the year-end holidays and related seasonal adjustments made it hard to forecast a figure for Thursday's report, it was likely to exceed the consensus estimate.

"In addition, the seasonally adjusted four-week average of Gallup's hiring measure suggests the Labor Department will report that seasonally adjusted four-week average jobless claims continued to increase, likely exceeding the 552,250 reported most recently," Jacobe said.

The four week average is seen as a better gauge of underlying labor trends as it irons out week-to-week volatility.

Gallup's survey also predicted that December's nonfarm payrolls report due on Friday will show the unemployment rate above 7 percent from 6.7 percent in November.

A private report on Wednesday showed U.S. private-sector employers axed 693,000 jobs in December, and suggested that non-farm payrolls probably declined by about 670,000 during that month.

Gallup's net new hiring activity measure was initiated in January 2008 and is aimed at assessing U.S. job creation or elimination based on aggregated interviews with a nationally representative sample of more than 2,000 workers each week about hiring and firing activity at their workplaces.

(Reporting by Lucia Mutikani; Editing by Chizu Nomiyama)