* December -11.2 percent, November -14.5 percent
* Largest two-month decline in at least 24 years
* Measures to tighten mortgage market appear to be biting
* Seasonal adjustment can lead to large swings
By Randall Palmer
OTTAWA, Feb 7 Tighter Canadian mortgage rules
appear to have put a serious damper on the housing market,
especially on the heated condominium sector, judging by
Statistics Canada data released on Thursday.
The value of Canadian building permits fell 11.2 percent in
December after a 14.5 percent decline in November. That was the
biggest two-month drop fall since the data series started in
1989, and left the value of building permits 16.2 percent lower
than a year earlier.
The median forecast in a Reuters survey of analysts was for
a 5.0 percent rise in the value of building permits in December.
The government set new mortgage rules and guidelines in June
to cool what it had worried was becoming a housing bubble.
Permits for multi-family housing, which include
condominiums, fell 24.6 percent and were 41.1 percent lower than
in June. Permits for single-family dwellings fell 5.3 percent,
the third straight decline.
"Today's figures suggest Canada's homebuilding sector could
be a drag on activity in late 2012/early 2013, and the recent
trend in slowing permits bodes poorly for tomorrow's housing
starts reading," Emanuella Enenajor and Andrew Grantham of CIBC
World Markets wrote in a note to clients.
January housing starts data are due at 8:15 a.m. EST (1315
GMT) on Friday. A Reuters survey shows expectations the
seasonally adjusted annualized rate will have fallen to 195,000
units from 198,000 in December.
Royal Bank of Canada assistant chief economist Paul Ferley
said he expected to see housing construction decline to more
sustainable levels in 2013-14.
But he also noted that building permits are low in frozen
winter, and that can lead to volatility in the published
figures, which are seasonally adjusted.
"If you get a little bit of noise through the winter period,
the seasonal adjustment can be so large that it can result in a
very sharp move in one month that's likely not going to be
sustained," he said.
But the overall softer direction seems clear. December
marked the sixth consecutive decline in multi-family dwellings.
The fall in building permits was steeper in the residential
sector, where building permits fell 13.1 percent by value in
December after a 7.0 percent fall in November.
Nonresidential permits fell 8.5 percent by value, after a
23.2 percent drop in November. The commercial component
registered the biggest drop at 10.6 percent, followed by
institutional and industrial building intentions.
Statistics Canada separately said new housing prices rose by
0.2 percent in December from November, and were 2.3 percent up
on the year. That price index does not cover the condo