* Indicator rises 0.2 percent in October, same as September
* Housing declines, manufacturing up
OTTAWA Nov 28 A new Canadian composite leading
indicator rose 0.2 percent in October, pointing to continued
slow growth in coming months but with manufacturing and exports
replacing the housing market as the main source of the
The gain in October matched a similar rise in September and
showed strength in most domestic sectors despite the recession
in Europe and uncertainty about the U.S. budget troubles, the
Macdonald-Laurier Institute said on Wednesday.
The think tank designed and launched the index this year
with the help of former Statistics Canada chief economist Philip
Cross after Statscan discontinued its leading indicator.
"The housing sector has turned down, after leading growth in
the spring," the institute said in a release.
"However, this softening has been outweighed by a rebound in
the manufacturing sector and the stock market, after declines
over the summer."
The housing index fell 1.7 percent in October for the fourth
straight decline, although it fell less sharply than the 2.7
percent drop recorded in September.
New orders for durable goods rose 1.2 percent thanks to
demand for aerospace products and steady gains in autos and
housing. The average workweek in the manufacturing sector also
climbed 0.3 percent.
The Toronto stock market also gained for the first time in
six months as firmer commodity prices boosted share prices in
Macdonald-Laurier changed the composition of the index to
enable it to predict economic performance further out, and built
a series of historic data using the new criteria.
The think tank said that on average the new index signals
recessions with a lead time of 7.4 months.