* Canada crude output seen at 6.7 mln bpd by 2030
* 2015 oil production 3.9 mln bpd, 2020 at 4.9 mln bpd
* Study sees higher oil sand, conventional production
* 'Collection of pipelines' needed to handle additional oil
CALGARY, Alberta, June 5 Canada's most
influential oil lobby boosted its long-term forecast for the
country's oil production as it expects higher output from the
oil sands and a resurgence in conventional oil drilling despite
near-term constraints on pipeline capacity.
The Canadian Association of Petroleum Producers (CAPP)
raised its estimate for 2030 production to 6.7 million barrels
per day in a closely watched annual outlook for Canada's oil
industry, up from 6.2 million bpd it forecast a year earlier.
Output from the United States' top energy supplier averaged
3.2 million bpd in 2012 and is expected to grow to 3.9 million
bpd by 2015. By 2020, production will be 4.9 million bpd,
200,000 bpd more than CAPP estimated a year ago.
That growth will come even as the industry awaits U.S.
approval for TransCanada Corp's contentious Keystone XL
Canada's oil production will bump up against the country's
export pipeline capacity as soon as next year, according to the
study. While rail shipments can take some of the excess
production, new pipelines will be needed or the industry will
see further discounting of Canadian oil as supply builds and is
unable to reach markets.
"The forecast is contingent on having the pipeline capacity
there," said Greg Stringham, vice president, markets, for the
lobby group. "But it's not one pipeline, not just Keystone or a
line going east. We need a collection of pipelines to move this
Canada's pipeline network can currently handle 3.6 million
Besides Keystone XL, several new projects have been proposed
to send crude east, west and south, that will add as much as 3.1
million bpd of new capacity by 2018.
OIL SANDS GROWTH
Canada has the world's third-largest oil reserves, behind
Venezuela and Saudi Arabia, but the bulk of the crude is trapped
in the oil sands of northern Alberta and producing it is more
expensive and carbon intensive than for conventional crude.
Still, CAPP is expecting oil sands output to rise from 1.8
million bpd in 2012 to 2.28 million bpd in 2015 and 3.22 million
bpd in 2020.
Much of the growth will come from in-situ thermal projects,
where steam is pumped into the ground to liquefy the tar-like
bitumen trapped in the sands so it can be pumped to the surface.
The lobby group estimates that such projects - which in 2012
accounted for 55 percent of all oil sands production while oil
sands mines produced the remainder - will produce 62 percent of
oil sands crude.
The output from Western Canada's conventional fields,
including shale oil, is expected to rise from 1.25 million bpd
in 2012 to 1.37 million bpd by 2015 and 1.38 million bpd by 2020
as producers increase output from shale-oil deposits like
Alberta's Duvernay formation.