* Winners and losers as ability to pass on costs differ
* Aviation allowance deficit seen at 844 mln units 2012-2020
LONDON Oct 26 Airlines are likely to be out of
pocket by around 2 billion euros ($2.8 billion) in 2020 from
taking part in the EU emissions trading scheme (ETS) as not all
carriers will be able to pass on the costs to customers, a
report said on Wednesday.
From Jan. 1 2012, about 4,000 airline operators will face
emission limits on all flights into or out of the European Union
-- regardless of nationality or operator -- and must submit
emission permits for each tonne of carbon dioxide (CO2)
Several airlines and industry groups in the United States,
China, India and elsewhere are challenging the EU legislation
The aviation sector will have a total deficit of 844 million
carbon units over the period 2012 through 2020, after taking
into account the free allowances handed out to airlines and
their carbon emissions over that period, said the report by
Bloomberg New Energy Finance.
The total deficit is 35 percent of the sector's expected
carbon emissions of 2.4 billion tonnes over the nine-year
period, it said.
The report gave low medium and high scenarios for the costs,
but in its conclusion it highlighted the medium figure of 2.17
billion euros in 2020, with a medium projection for the carbon
price of 17.9 euros a tonne. Benchmark EU Allowances are
currently trading at around 10.15 euros.
"At current EUA market prices this translates to an annual
'out-of-pocket' cost of 762 million euros in 2012 and 2.17
billion euros in 2020," said the report.
These costs represent 0.24 percent of the revenue associated
with flying the routes covered by the EU ETS in 2012 and 0.54
percent of revenue in 2020, BNEF said.
"There will also be winners and losers within the industry
as the ability to pass on costs will vary by route flown and
customer profile," the report added.
Guy Turner, an analyst at BNEF and author of the report, was
unable to identify the potential winners and losers, saying that
would require very complex calculations.
These include comparing how many EU allowances each airline
gets in relation to the miles they fly, as well as the ability
of each carrier to pass on costs to their customers.
"On the aggregate we think the industry is going to benefit
in the long run, at least up to 2020, by the inclusion of the
sector in the EU ETS," he told Reuters.
"The long-haul carriers might be better off in terms of the
relative distribution of allowances, but they may be less able
to pass on those costs to customers."
He said the estimated costs and benefits for carriers taking
part in the EU cap-and-trade scheme have varied greatly between
those made by industry and the European Commission, the EU
executive that proposes carbon market legislation.
For instance, the International Aviation Transport
Association (IATA) has said the cost of compliance would amount
to $17.7 billion over the 2012-2020 period, while the Commission
has said the industry could reap a profit of $20 billion over
the same period.
Other research has estimated the cost to airlines at around
1 billion euros by 2012.
Airlines' free allocation also differs widely, depending on
the carrier, according to a Point Carbon report in September,
which said scheduled airlines will receive between 20 and 100
percent of their 2012 permit requirement for free.
($1 = 0.719 Euros)
(Reporting By Jeff Coelho; Editing by Nina Chestney and Anthony