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* Buyer sentiment, trading activity has improved - Cheung
* Developers prioritise volumes over margins as price war
* Hong Kong home prices expected to reach new highs -
By Yimou Lee
HONG KONG, July 31 Hong Kong property
developers, recently vexed by a spate of government tightening
measures, saw their earnings rebound in the first half thanks to
robust demand. Analysts are pencilling in a sustained sales
pickup for the rest of the year.
The city's second-largest property developer Cheung Kong
(Holdings) Ltd posted a 59 percent rise in first-half
net profit to HK$21.35 billion ($2.75 billion) on Thursday.
Smaller rival Hang Lung Properties reported a 17
percent gain, driven by a 10-fold increase in sales.
Developers are now prioritising volumes over margins,
offering steep discounts to attract end-users who are exempted
from a series of government cooling measures, analysts say.
In late 2009, the government of the former British colony
unveiled the first of a series of measures to cool one of the
world's most expensive real estate markets. Hong Kong home
prices have surged more than 120 percent since 2008 due to low
interest rates, supply shortage and flush liquidity.
The first sign that the government is easing its cooling
measures came in May when it proposed a scheme under which home
owners who wish to upgrade their flats will have more time to
sell their old homes. Owners currently only have a six-month
window, a measure imposed to moderate quick resales.
The slight easing came a month after the city's leader said
the property market is no longer "overheated". Since then,
market sentiment has improved, prompting several industry
watchers to raise their forecasts for home prices in 2014.
"Developers are now trying to lower the cost of land
purchase in order to keep margins at certain levels," said
Centaline Property Agency research director Wong Leung Sing, who
expected home prices to continue to reach record highs in the
"There's no doubt that their profitability is getting lower
and lower, but they are not making a loss - not even close."
Developers could sell properties worth up to HK$130 billion
($16.77 billion) in the second half, more than double what they
sold in the first half, said Morgan Stanley analyst Praveen
Cheung Kong, controlled by Asia's richest man Li Ka-shing,
has recorded property sales of about HK$19.8 billion so far this
year, the most among all Hong Kong developers, according to BNP
Paribas. That helped the company to reach 66 percent of its
annual sales target of HK$30 billion in Hong Kong, Reuters
"Improvement in buyer sentiment and trading activity has
been seen more recently, but increases in construction costs are
expected to continue, and policy measures will remain a major
factor in determining the direction of the local property
market," Li said in a filing to the Hong Kong stock exchange
after the market closed.
VOLUMES OVER MARGINS
Shares in the company have jumped more than 40 percent since
February. They reached a record high on Wednesday after Morgan
Stanley revised up its forecasts for Hong Kong's home prices
this year to a 5 percent gain from a 10 percent drop.
With some 12,000 new units expected to be launched in the
second half, according to Morgan Stanley, analysts said strong
demand for smaller units from mass-market buyers should continue
to boost sales.
However, developers' profit margins may suffer as a price
"At the end of the day, we believe it is net development
earnings that matter, and we believe investors should focus on
how development margins are likely to evolve going forward,"
Barclays property analyst Paul Louie said.
The price difference between new launches and second-hand
homes - an indicator of developers' profitability - dropped to
minus 3.8 percent in the second quarter of this year from 21
percent a year earlier, according to Barclays.
UBS had estimated earlier this year that profit margins for
Hong Kong's six major developers would fall from 36 percent in
2012 to 20 percent in 2015 and 14 percent in 2016.
($1 = 7.7498 Hong Kong Dollars)
(Reporting By Yimou Lee; Editing by Anne Marie Roantree and