BEIJING Jan 9 Home prices in China are
likely to fall moderately in the first half of 2012 before
stabilising in the second half as Beijing maintains market
tightening measures, according to a report released on Monday by
REICO, a research institute sponsored by developer.
Average home prices nationwide have declined since October,
and government leaders have repeatedly said they want to pull
prices back to a "reasonable level".
Rapid growth in construction of new homes from March to
November of 2010 would translate into a surge in supply from the
third quarter of 2011 through the first half of 2012, said the
institute, set up by the China Real Estate Chamber of Commerce,
a semi-government association, and a fund created by developers.
It said softening prices and the looser monetary policy
would lead to easier and cheaper mortgage loans for first-home
buyers and increase transactions, while slower expansion by
developers would cool real estate investment this year to about
16 percent and economic growth to 8.3 percent.
Annual investment in the real estate sector rose 29.9
percent in the first 11 months of 2011, down from 31.1 in the
first 10 months, official data showed. REICO forecast GDP growth
of 9.0 percent for 2011.
"The cash strain facing some developers will increase
mergers and acquisitions in the real estate sector in 2012 under
the backdrop of continued government tightening measures," the
institute said in the report.
(Reporting by Langi Chiang and Kevin Yao; Editing by Chris