By Benjamin Kang Lim and Ben Blanchard
BEIJING Nov 9 Chinese leaders began a four-day
secret meeting on Saturday to set a reform agenda for the next
decade as they try to push more sustainable growth after three
decades of breakneck expansion.
However, analysts have cautioned against expectations for
big changes as they say stability remains the watchword for the
President Xi Jinping and Premier Li Keqiang must unleash new
growth drivers as the world's second-largest economy loses
steam, burdened by industrial overcapacity, piles of debt and
soaring house prices.
The meeting - held under tight security at a Soviet-era
hotel in western Beijing - will show just how committed the new
leadership is to reform after formally taking power in March.
Economic reforms will dominate the meeting of the 205-member
Central Committee of China's ruling Communist Party. Little if
any news will be released during the event, but official news
agency Xinhua traditionally issues a dispatch on the last day.
Xinhua confirmed in an English-language dispatch that the
meeting had begun, with the agenda led by a discussion over a
draft document on deepening reform, "which pools the wisdom of
the whole Party and from all aspects".
It added: "Comprehensively deepening reform means the reform
will be more systematic, integrated and coordinated." It gave no
Some media reports have said top policymakers could take
bold steps to deal with entrenched vested interests, such as
The Development Research Centre, a think-tank for China's
cabinet, set out last month eight key areas for reform at the
plenum - finance, taxation, land, state assets, social welfare,
innovation, foreign investment and governance.
"These are just recommendations. There is still strong
opposition" to the proposed reforms, a source with ties to the
leadership told Reuters, requesting anonymity.
Powerful interest groups, including leftists or
conservatives, local governments, state-owned enterprises and
state banks, oppose some of the reforms such as freeing up
interest rates, allowing private banks and turning Shanghai into
a free trade zone, several sources say.
However, the party will put on a unified face once Xinhua
issues its communique at the end of the plenum on Tuesday,
pledging reform without providing too many details.
The People's Daily's influential tabloid, the Global Times,
cautioned in an editorial on Saturday that the country's leaders
would be unlikely to live up to the huge expectations.
"They can hardly be as ambitious as some sections of the
public hope. The most ambitious government in terms of reforms
would still be considered conservative when faced with these
expectations," it wrote.
The government has pledged to let market forces play a
bigger role in setting the price of capital, energy and land,
and to cut red tape.
That suggests the biggest changes may be fresh measures to
free up interest rates and fiscal changes to let local
governments to manage their debt better and move away from
reliance on land sales for revenues.
HAWKS AND DOVES
In a bid to end the debate between hawks and doves, Xi
declared in January that the second 30 years of Communist rule,
when reforms transformed China into an economic powerhouse,
should not be used to "negate" the first 30 years under Mao
Zedong when chaos, poverty and hunger prevailed.
Conservatives blame China's policy of reform during the
second 30 years for a yawning wealth gap and other problems.
Liberals revile Mao not just for the chaos of the 1966-76
Cultural Revolution, but also for the tens of millions who died
in a man-made famine in the years after the 1958 Great Leap
On the eve of the plenum, the party's history research
office published a full-page article in the official People's
Daily, repeating the warning against "negating" the two periods,
a sign that debate still simmers.
Adding to Xi's troubles, the political fallout from the
downfall of Bo Xilai, a former contender for a seat at the apex
of power, still haunts the party.
Bo, disgraced party boss of the southwestern city of
Chongqing, was jailed for life in September on charges of
accepting bribes, corruption and abuse of power, but still has
many supporters and sympathizers with his pro-Mao policies.
A party document circulated this week urged officials to toe
the line and learn from Bo's mistakes, sources said. They were
told to conform with the party's decision to expel and prosecute
Bo, a second source said.
Underscoring the party's worries, supporters of Bo have set
up a new political party, in a direct challenge to the de facto
ban on new political groups.
The meeting may also decide to loosen the household
registration system, which blocks migrant workers and their
families from access to education and social welfare beyond
their home villages.
The system is seen as a hurdle to attracting more people to
urban areas, a social equality trend the government seeks to
promote as it looks to boost domestic consumption.
The leaders may also push land reforms to allow farmers to
sell land when they leave their villages. Currently, they cannot
sell land freely and many do not leave their farms for fear
local governments could grab them for development.
While some social and political issues could be tackled,
such as corruption and pollution, Western-style political reform
is certainly not on the agenda.
Historically, third plenums in China have served as a
springboard for key economic reforms.
Former leader Deng Xiaoping launched reforms to open the
economy to the outside world at a third plenum in 1978.
That was followed by a third plenum in 1993 that endorsed
the "socialist" market economy, paving the way for sweeping
reforms spearheaded by then Premier Zhu Rongji, which led to
China's entry into the World Trade Organization.
But the third plenum in 2003, under Hu Jintao and Wen
Jiabao, predecessors of Xi and Li, failed to yield key reforms.
In 2008, they unveiled a 4 trillion yuan ($656 billion) stimulus
package, which fuelled a property frenzy and saddled local
governments with debt of more than 10 trillion yuan the economy
is still trying to absorb.