Global stocks, oil rebound on economic data

Comments (5)
Vuenbelvue wrote:

Everytime I look the Euro goes up and the USD goes down. Last week, the Euro was $1.38
Barclays PLC (BCS, BARC.LN) said Monday that it raised its forecasts for the euro exchange rate against the dollar and pound, citing an improvement in the euro-zone economy.
The world’s third biggest currency-dealing bank said it now expects the euro to trade at $1.36 against the buck in three months time from $1.32 previously, and at $1.32 in six months time from $1.26 previously.
Barclays also said it expects the euro to trade at $1.28 in 12 months, having previously had a forecast of $1.22.

Read more: http://www.foxbusiness.com/news/2013/02/04/barclays-raises-euro-forecasts-against-dollar-pound/#ixzz2JzCgegtV

Feb 04, 2013 9:04pm EST  --  Report as abuse
dareconomics wrote:

The good news is that the Eurozone economy is decreasing at a slower rate. The rate of decrease has slowed over the past three months, so we have a positive trend here.

The bad news is that Germany is accounting for most of the uptick, and the divergence between the core and the periphery is growing. Even worse, France has joined the periphery economies. Germany is the only one of the four largest economies to be in expansion:

January Markit PMI Germany

The eurocrisis in its essence is a divergence between the rich and poor countries with the common usage exacerbating this split. While some data may show improvement, those “green shoots” are merely noise. The signal is the strengthening of the bifurcation between the haves and have-nots. To wit, two charter members of the periphery, Italy and Spain, along with new member France remain safely within contractionary territory:

January Markit PMI France January Markit PMI Italy January Markit PMI Spain

Spain is improving, and at least Italy is not getting worse, but France is peering over the cliff.

The problem with using one currency for very different economies is that only one monetary policy may be implemented. German requires a stable policy to keep inflation at bay, but the other countries, particularly France, require expansion. The bottom line is that as long as these economies continue to diverge, the eurocrisis will continue to fester.

Full post with charts at dareconomics.com

Feb 05, 2013 12:57pm EST  --  Report as abuse
dareconomics wrote:

The good news is that the Eurozone economy is decreasing at a slower rate. The rate of decrease has slowed over the past three months, so we have a positive trend here.

The bad news is that Germany is accounting for most of the uptick, and the divergence between the core and the periphery is growing. Even worse, France has joined the periphery economies. Germany is the only one of the four largest economies to be in expansion:

January Markit PMI Germany

The eurocrisis in its essence is a divergence between the rich and poor countries with the common usage exacerbating this split. While some data may show improvement, those “green shoots” are merely noise. The signal is the strengthening of the bifurcation between the haves and have-nots. To wit, two charter members of the periphery, Italy and Spain, along with new member France remain safely within contractionary territory:

January Markit PMI France January Markit PMI Italy January Markit PMI Spain

Spain is improving, and at least Italy is not getting worse, but France is peering over the cliff.

The problem with using one currency for very different economies is that only one monetary policy may be implemented. German requires a stable policy to keep inflation at bay, but the other countries, particularly France, require expansion. The bottom line is that as long as these economies continue to diverge, the eurocrisis will continue to fester.

Full post with charts at dareconomics.com

Feb 05, 2013 12:57pm EST  --  Report as abuse
dareconomics wrote:

The good news is that the Eurozone economy is decreasing at a slower rate. The rate of decrease has slowed over the past three months, so we have a positive trend here.

The bad news is that Germany is accounting for most of the uptick, and the divergence between the core and the periphery is growing. Even worse, France has joined the periphery economies. Germany is the only one of the four largest economies to be in expansion:

January Markit PMI Germany

The eurocrisis in its essence is a divergence between the rich and poor countries with the common usage exacerbating this split. While some data may show improvement, those “green shoots” are merely noise. The signal is the strengthening of the bifurcation between the haves and have-nots. To wit, two charter members of the periphery, Italy and Spain, along with new member France remain safely within contractionary territory:

January Markit PMI France January Markit PMI Italy January Markit PMI Spain

Spain is improving, and at least Italy is not getting worse, but France is peering over the cliff.

The problem with using one currency for very different economies is that only one monetary policy may be implemented. German requires a stable policy to keep inflation at bay, but the other countries, particularly France, require expansion. The bottom line is that as long as these economies continue to diverge, the eurocrisis will continue to fester.

Full post with charts at dareconomics.com

Feb 05, 2013 12:57pm EST  --  Report as abuse
brotherkenny4 wrote:

If the price of oil goes up, then spending elsewhere goes down and the economy suffers and because the economy suffers the usage of oil goes down and so the price goes down. Then, because the price goes down spending elsewhere can happen which means the economy improves and so people begin using more oil and because oil is in more demand the price goes up and so people have less money to spend elsewhere and so the economy declines. But then, because the economy declines, people use less oil and so the price goes down, which improves the economy and so usage of oil goes up and so does the price and this slows down the economy so oil usage goes down and so the price drops which allows people to spend elsewhere and the economy improves………… and so on.

We have pinned our economy to oil and it is the biggest money maker out there but it destroys all other businesses and because it is the biggest money maker the oil companies have plenty of money to buy our politicians. Thus we will continue to constrain our economy because of our ties to oil and because it is so big it will always be subsidized by our politicians and thus us.

Most people fear the masters of industry and so we will always elect those people who will support the largest industries and that is why we elect democrats and republicans and they are the same people. There is nothing that can be done to change this because most people are frightened of life and fear death and so are controlled by those that profess to speak with god. Yes we are controlled by people who hear voices in their heads. And we like it.

Feb 05, 2013 2:00pm EST  --  Report as abuse
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