Analysis: Euro zone - reasons to be wary in 2014

Comments (4)
fv3045 wrote:

Sir:
Your analysis is sound – up to a point. It is time that such “outlook” perspectives gave greater attention to political developments. The modest 1% or so euro-zone GDP prospect will mean, in fact, that there is very little improvement in general unemployment, especially youth unemployment, in, for example, Greece, Spain, Italy and France. This will continue to build political uncertainties, making it difficult for the current governments to provide forceful leadership, to pursue structural reforms that may be painful in the short-term, and revive the engine of growth. Combine such considerations with likely major migration across Europe as young people strive to go where they think jobs are (and the likely push back say from the UK), plus likely continued pressure on immigration into the euro-zone, from Syria, North Africa, etc, and the tensions in the region may mount. Finally, uncertainties may be strengthened by the continuing failure of euro-zone leaders to develop a coherent and confidence-building comprehensive set of banking union reforms. If one adds such factors to your analysis then the outlook for the euro-zone looks decidedly worse. The one bit of good news is that euro-zone exports may rise somewhat as the US economy strengthens in 2014.
Sincerely,
Frank Vogl
Washington DC

Jan 06, 2014 11:50am EST  --  Report as abuse
fv3045 wrote:

Sir:
Your analysis is sound – up to a point. It is time that such “outlook” perspectives gave greater attention to political developments. The modest 1% or so euro-zone GDP prospect will mean, in fact, that there is very little improvement in general unemployment, especially youth unemployment, in, for example, Greece, Spain, Italy and France. This will continue to build political uncertainties, making it difficult for the current governments to provide forceful leadership, to pursue structural reforms that may be painful in the short-term, and revive the engine of growth. Combine such considerations with likely major migration across Europe as young people strive to go where they think jobs are (and the likely push back say from the UK), plus likely continued pressure on immigration into the euro-zone, from Syria, North Africa, etc, and the tensions in the region may mount. Finally, uncertainties may be strengthened by the continuing failure of euro-zone leaders to develop a coherent and confidence-building comprehensive set of banking union reforms. If one adds such factors to your analysis then the outlook for the euro-zone looks decidedly worse. The one bit of good news is that euro-zone exports may rise somewhat as the US economy strengthens in 2014.
Sincerely,
Frank Vogl
Washington DC

Jan 06, 2014 11:50am EST  --  Report as abuse
fv3045 wrote:

Sir:
Your analysis is sound – up to a point. It is time that such “outlook” perspectives gave greater attention to political developments. The modest 1% or so euro-zone GDP prospect will mean, in fact, that there is very little improvement in general unemployment, especially youth unemployment, in, for example, Greece, Spain, Italy and France. This will continue to build political uncertainties, making it difficult for the current governments to provide forceful leadership, to pursue structural reforms that may be painful in the short-term, and revive the engine of growth. Combine such considerations with likely major migration across Europe as young people strive to go where they think jobs are (and the likely push back say from the UK), plus likely continued pressure on immigration into the euro-zone, from Syria, North Africa, etc, and the tensions in the region may mount. Finally, uncertainties may be strengthened by the continuing failure of euro-zone leaders to develop a coherent and confidence-building comprehensive set of banking union reforms. If one adds such factors to your analysis then the outlook for the euro-zone looks decidedly worse. The one bit of good news is that euro-zone exports may rise somewhat as the US economy strengthens in 2014.
Sincerely,
Frank Vogl
Washington DC

Jan 06, 2014 11:50am EST  --  Report as abuse
fv3045 wrote:

Sir:
Your analysis is sound – up to a point. It is time that such “outlook” perspectives gave greater attention to political developments. The modest 1% or so euro-zone GDP prospect will mean, in fact, that there is very little improvement in general unemployment, especially youth unemployment, in, for example, Greece, Spain, Italy and France. This will continue to build political uncertainties, making it difficult for the current governments to provide forceful leadership, to pursue structural reforms that may be painful in the short-term, and revive the engine of growth. Combine such considerations with likely major migration across Europe as young people strive to go where they think jobs are (and the likely push back say from the UK), plus likely continued pressure on immigration into the euro-zone, from Syria, North Africa, etc, and the tensions in the region may mount. Finally, uncertainties may be strengthened by the continuing failure of euro-zone leaders to develop a coherent and confidence-building comprehensive set of banking union reforms. If one adds such factors to your analysis then the outlook for the euro-zone looks decidedly worse. The one bit of good news is that euro-zone exports may rise somewhat as the US economy strengthens in 2014.
Sincerely,
Frank Vogl
Washington DC

Jan 06, 2014 11:50am EST  --  Report as abuse
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