Darker U.S. homebuilder mood not just due to bad weather

Comments (7)
JustProduce wrote:

Considering that replacement costs are too high and that most of last year’s sales were to investment managers like Blackrock, there is no reason why builders should be upbeat.
But at least they know that it has nothing to do with the weather.
From the government, to economists, naive optimism about a recovering real estate market abounded despite the evidence. No one stopped to see that homes were being sold too cheaply for builders to want to compete. Moreover, such homes were being sold to very visible institutions rather than families. The latter should had been clear by two facts: (1) the banking system has yet to come back fully to the real estate loan market and (2) the bonds created by Blackrock were billions of dollars in homes bought for rent and then securitized.
This is why I have a hard time thinking of economics as a science. Pseudo-scientists like economists are great at curve-fitting until they see what they want from charts. Real scientists would be glad to be surprised by the evidence.
Keep walking people, no new news here.

Feb 18, 2014 10:09pm EST  --  Report as abuse
4sight2020 wrote:

maybe if people had jobs they could buy houses. someone should tell the president that his stimulus plans aren’t working.

Feb 18, 2014 11:35pm EST  --  Report as abuse
seterk wrote:

Sorry but this has the tone of a slam piece…

Feb 18, 2014 11:47pm EST  --  Report as abuse
JustProduce wrote:

@seterk
How is it a slam piece?
If below 50 is negative and the number is 46, how else could it be interpreted?
Take all the editorial out and just analyze the data. It doesn’t get any more binary that this. Perhaps the lack of spin material is behind the low participation in this comments section?

Feb 19, 2014 12:31am EST  --  Report as abuse
njglea wrote:

The U.S. housing market was overbuilt by 50% during the ridiculous housing boom – for investors. Now people are lucky if they can afford one mortgage if they were even fortunate enough to be able to keep their home. Insatiable Greed on all sides but particularly in the investor/banker sectors set the U.S. back 75 years.

Feb 19, 2014 9:52am EST  --  Report as abuse
sabrefencer wrote:

something is happening here..and it aint the weather….wake up Obama admin

Feb 19, 2014 10:11am EST  --  Report as abuse
Stickystones wrote:

The chilling realization that homebuilding and construction in general will not return to pre-recession levels is contributing to this lack of confidence. Commercial retail construction has been decimated too and the majority of construction projects now are government funded. As a result construction employment has been obliterated as the article states.

There is no shortage of construction labor, builders just don’t want to sacrifice their profit to hire experienced workers. Masons have been in short supply for many years, even before the recession, but that’s only one trade. The weather, Obamacare and environmental regulations do affect homebuilders, but the principal factor causing the construction sector to collapse is the economy.

Feb 19, 2014 10:26am EST  --  Report as abuse
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