Sturdy U.S. manufacturing data bolster growth outlook

Comments (16)
stambo2001 wrote:

We’ve seen these headlines before…only to see the ‘revision’ a few weeks later on the back pages getting no coverage.

Jun 16, 2014 9:25am EDT  --  Report as abuse
Simplerman wrote:

The Federal Reserve must be including the printing of money as manufacturing activity (to come up with these numbers).

Jun 16, 2014 10:34am EDT  --  Report as abuse

This is cherry picking at it’s best. So many other indicators are flat or negative. Workforce participation is one of the giants. It is slipping away. Under employment is a negative indicator as well. So much of our economy depends on workers getting a paycheck that it’s importance can’t be understated. The increase in productivity is good but one candle does not light a house. We need to get our house in order. We can no longer afford clumsey and inefficient governemnt and the inceasing burden of debt it creats.

Jun 16, 2014 10:55am EDT  --  Report as abuse

This is cherry picking at it’s best. So many other indicators are flat or negative. Workforce participation is one of the giants. It is slipping away. Under employment is a negative indicator as well. So much of our economy depends on workers getting a paycheck that it’s importance can’t be understated. The increase in productivity is good but one candle does not light a house. We need to get our house in order. We can no longer afford clumsey and inefficient governemnt and the inceasing burden of debt it creats.

Jun 16, 2014 10:55am EDT  --  Report as abuse
Bakhtin wrote:

No matter how desperately Republicans want the US to fail, no amount of “wah…wah… the numbers are wrong” will change the reality that Obama has fixed the damage the Republican Recession caused.

Face reality: Republicans wrecked the US economy and then Obama fixed it.

Jun 16, 2014 10:55am EDT  --  Report as abuse
AlkalineState wrote:

Obama was right. Economy improved. Get over it.

Jun 16, 2014 11:29am EDT  --  Report as abuse
BeRealistic wrote:

Bakhtin – come back to reality please…on second thought, maybe its better for you to stay out there.

“IMF cuts U.S. growth outlook, says full employment years off” – http://www.reuters.com/article/2014/06/16/us-imf-usa-idUSKBN0ER1IH20140616

Jun 16, 2014 11:49am EDT  --  Report as abuse
BeRealistic wrote:

Oh, and last time I looked, the economy was pretty healthy until 2007 time frame. Hmmm, what could have precipitated the turn around so quickly for the bad? Oh yeah, the DNC swept congress and started meddling and implementing their policies of “warm fuzzy” politics to appease their voting base though, either because of ignorance or intent, their policies have repeatedly been shown to be economic failures.

Jun 16, 2014 12:01pm EDT  --  Report as abuse
lateralgs wrote:

BeRealistic, you might want to consider trying a little harder to follow your screen name, please. The economic crisis unfolding in 2007 and 2008 had zero, nada, zilch, not one single thing to do with the elections of 2006 and 2008. To make that assertion is asinine. The bubble created by the bundling and securitization of sub-prime mortgages, together with the fact interest rates had been held too low for too long, resulting in speculative buying and selling of housing assets across all the “hot markets” in the country, are the main things that lead to the crash. This was not a political manifesto driven economic debacle. Not even close.

Jun 16, 2014 1:42pm EDT  --  Report as abuse
Bakhtin wrote:

From BeRealistic’s link:

“In its annual health check of the U.S. economy, the IMF cut its 2014 forecast to 2 percent from the 2.8 percent it predicted in April, due to a weak first quarter. It kept its 2015 forecast unchanged at 3 percent, as job creation picks up after a harsh winter.

“Recent data … suggest a meaningful rebound in activity is now underway and growth for the remainder of this year and 2015 should well exceed potential,” the IMF said.”

What is so disastrous about that? Minimum 2% growth for 2014 and 3% in 2015 is a whole lot better than the Republican Recession. Also from BeRealistic’s link:

“The IMF urged the United States to increase spending on infrastructure and education and change parts of its tax system, including boosting the federal gasoline tax and reinstating the tax credit for research and development, to help spur growth.”

@BeRealistic: do you agree with the IMF on increasing spending, too?

As for full employment by 2017 – old news. The prediction at the time of Republicans destroying the USA was around 10 years for full recovery at the most optimistic. Some argue that it could be a lot longer if lost growth is factored in, meaning that even in 2017 the USA will still be lagging behind where the USA could have been if Republicans hadn’t wrecked the country.

Jun 16, 2014 1:55pm EDT  --  Report as abuse
Bakhtin wrote:

For those who could read it, the writing was on the wall for the US economy at the back end of 2004/ beginning of 2005, but Republicans either couldn’t read it or chose to ignore it. By the end of 2005 the economy was definitely falling apart and it was a case of when – not if – the crash would come.

Jun 16, 2014 2:02pm EDT  --  Report as abuse
JustProduce wrote:

As much as I wish to see the same optimistic picture others suggest, I can’t. As someone who helps small businesses, the years after 2009 have been just too difficult on both owners and employees. Yes, I said after 2009, which is when the recession ended in theory. While demand for blue chip dividends have driven US equity indexes higher, small businesses continue to struggle. That access to capital has failed to return after many years since the end of the recession is hard to believe; especially in an environment where large companies can borrow at historically low rates. Without capital access, small businesses will have to continue to drain cash until something changes.
Of course that not all businesses struggle. There are areas that have found great success. My visits to Houston have shown the power of the US oil renaissance. Unfortunately, these continue to be exceptions rather than the norm.
But let’s say for a minute that I am willing to accept that things are better. Let’s say that the Federal Reserve agrees. This would truly be fantastic as the FED would deleverage their balance sheet. We would also see markets revert to normal pricing efficiency. In essence, a recovery would be better for the US.
In the mean time, though, it is hard to make the argument that things are better until we witness those handling the nation’s jet-fuel supply turn off the faucet. Note that simply turning off the monetary supply won’t suffice if we end up crashing afterwise.
The reality is that until I see successful Fed deleveraging, I can’t be convinced of Obama’s economical success.
As for Bathking who will undoubtedly attempt to once again argue that I do not economics, I will continue to suggest for her to make our president their European king. From the sounds of it, we would both be very happy.

Jun 16, 2014 3:43pm EDT  --  Report as abuse
BeRealistic wrote:

No to more spending, at least not entirely as suggested, and definitely no to more gasoline tax.

The 2014 forecast is pretty much sealed because it is current and we have already seen what is happening and what has already transpired. As for future year, it is just more propaganda of the “hope and change” type though not from the usual goofballs. Why are so many people and organizations always trying to paint a pretty picture of what they hope, expect, forecast, predict o happen instead of addressing the reality of what is actually happening and trying to avert more of the same? Gee, even I can start my own blog and start proclaiming a set of unrealistic predictions. As a matter of fact, just to bolster everyone’s confidence in how great the nation is doing, I’ll go ahead, so you can say you heard it here first, and predict that unemployment will be 0% by 2016; growth is predicted at around 4.8%; energy, food, and most durables will fall in price by 40%, minimum wage is likely to top $38/hr and everyone will live in a million dollar house mortgage free.

See how easy forecasts come? It seems review of past forecasts show the track record is not very good.

Jun 16, 2014 3:49pm EDT  --  Report as abuse
AlkalineState wrote:

This is great news. Obama is doing a good job and I am glad I voted for him. Twice. Keep up the good work.

Jun 16, 2014 7:48pm EDT  --  Report as abuse
Bakhtin wrote:

What JustProduce says about small businesses:

“As much as I wish to see the same optimistic picture others suggest, I can’t. As someone who helps small businesses, the years after 2009 have been just too difficult on both owners and employees. Yes, I said after 2009, which is when the recession ended in theory. While demand for blue chip dividends have driven US equity indexes higher, small businesses continue to struggle.”

What small businesses say about small businesses:

“the small business sector is growing rapidly. While corporate America has been “downsizing”, the rate of small business “start-ups” has grown, and the rate for small business failures has declined.”
http://www.sba.gov/content/small-business-trends

“Since the end of the recession (from mid-2009 to mid-2013), small firms accounted for 60 percent of the net new jobs. Small firms in the 20-499 employee category led job creation.” http://www.sbecouncil.org/about-us/facts-and-data/#sthash.dDStOBGb.dpuf

*****

What JustProduce says about small business funding:

“That access to capital has failed to return after many years since the end of the recession is hard to believe; especially in an environment where large companies can borrow at historically low rates. Without capital access, small businesses will have to continue to drain cash until something changes.”

What small businesses say about small business funding:

“Small banks continue to grab a big share of the small business loan market. A recent survey shows small lenders already grant more than half of small business loans. And last month, approval rates jumped again to 51.6 percent from 51.1 percent in April.

Rohit Arora, CEO of Biz2Credit, an online lending marketplace, explains:
“This development is a sign that the economy is improving. Lenders are getting applications from more established businesses that are showing three years of profitability. At the same time, big banks are hungry to make loans, in part because the mortgage lending remains stagnant and because lending to solidly performing small businesses is less risky than it was during the recession.”

[...]

large banks with over $10 million in assets also saw an increase in lending last month and now approve almost one out of every five small business funding requests, the survey says.

Arora added:
“Small business owners are confident and are investing in the expansion of their businesses. They are seeking SBA loans, as well as non-SBA loans, which take a shorter period of time to approve, have less restrictions and more flexibility, and sometimes offer better interest rates.”

[...]

Credit unions and institutional lenders also continued to see increases in lending approvals, the survey said.”
http://smallbiztrends.com/2014/06/small-bank-loan-approvals-rises.html

Jun 16, 2014 12:16am EDT  --  Report as abuse
JustProduce wrote:

Did you even read your own post?
“approve almost one out of every five small business funding requests”
Now that is a great lending environment. Not.
If only you where actually here to speak with real US business owners rather than reading posts trying to boost business moral online…
Great work digging all this virtual stuff though. I admire the time you spend.

Jun 17, 2014 12:02pm EDT  --  Report as abuse
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