UPDATE 1-Adobe says Flash gaining in smartphone market

To this skeptical observer, Adobe’s forecast seems not unreasonable; I’d even venture that once a sizable fraction of web traffic starts seeing Flash on-line, Apple will declare that Flash is no longer the “buggy,” “power-hungry” “security risk” that Jobs objected to back in 2010.

Certainly another couple iterations of Moore’s Law and smartphones will have the power of today’s netbooks that can run it. I believe that Flash is technically impossible on devices as constrained as anything prior to the crop of mid-2009. (Adobe’s long-standing failure to deliver prodution-quality Flash on *any* phone, not just Apple’s, certainly supports that conjecture.)

But does Adobe really mean to say that their best case for Flash locks out almost all of today’s maybe 200 million smartphone users, plus most of today’s new devices, for a couple of years until they’re discarded? That’d be quite the blow to web designers and creatives at agencies who have to produce results long before 2013 rolls around.