Special report: Big California quake likely to devastate state

Our geologists are kidding themselves if they think
A 7.8 earthquake in Southern California is going to cost only 2,000 lives. Japan has the world’s most advanced early warning system that shuts down railways, elevators, and other infrastructure right before the 9.0 hit and it still killed over 3,000 (and estimated 10k+). That earthquake was 240 miles away in the Ocean and 20 km deep. You think the San Andreas, which is right near the surface is going to be the same? We’re not even close to being as prepared as they are. We have the most advanced detectors… but that’s about it. We are wholly unprepared for this.

The OC Registers quotes Southern California Edison that their nuke plant at San Onofre is “safe.” Edison says, “It was built to withstand an earthquake of 7.0 magnitude, and its sea wall was built 30 feet high — to withstand a tsunami of 25 feet, which is the biggest that experts predicted would surge its way when the plant was designed and built in the late 1970s and early 1980s.”

Hey, a 7 magnitude is what the Japanese planned for, too! And guess what happened? It was a 9 magnitude! Good thing you can psychically predict the upper limit on a tsunami, as well. Seriously, shut down the nukes before you people ruin California with 600 years of radioactivity ala Sendai.

All well and good about the earth quakes but the major devastation came from the sea. I am a builder and I know California and Japan build well for earthquakes using the latest technologies – The areas in this country that should be worried are the Madrid fault and the Northeast where there are no stringent earthquake codes. California will make it with less damage than a major hurricane or tornado. What concerns me is what can be done to control waves and build for Tsunami’s.

I read title of article and I thought in my best Charlie Sheen voice….”DUH!”

Everything is a calculated risk. Nuclear plants have an expected lifespan of 60 years (San Onofre is scheduled to close in 2022). The last megaquake to hit SoCal was when…1857.
Grey Davis was recalled as governor because he purchased electricity from the surrounding states and forgot to pay them back. When they cut the cord, Californians experienced “rolling” blackouts.
Thirtyseven million residents…two thousand is a drop in the bucket.

Money is to trade corn. How much do you pay survivors to move rubble? What is the hospital, bills, sufferance for survivors?

More to the point it’s time to identify and map out the risk, start working a plan.

Saugus, Oakland, Northridge, Japan’s last two make at least five clear warnings of much worse.

And 3 mile was also cloaked so instead of criticism better to assume the worst and jump in now with all we got if for no other reason than to learn what it takes to work with these materials in the most challenging test.

If we avoid a shutdown or buy more time for our eco-system all the better.

While it is tempting to ask the “experts” to predict the future, the hard fact is that they are not experts in predicting the future. They know the past and have theories which are largely untested. When a scientist reaches the point that he can tell us exactly where and when an earthquake will occur and how strong it will be and the height of waves from a tsunami (if any) — then we can ask for meaningful predictions.

The Japanese were well-prepared for PAST events. Not for this event. Thus, thousands of deaths from the tsunami (few from the earthquake) and the failure of nuclear plants thought to be safe.

If we want odds, maybe Las Vegas would be the place to get our information.

While it is hard to predict the future, most of the scientists “worst-case” scenarios would have been ignored as impossible, due to “it’ll never happen” syndrome. This attitude persists mainly because the people paying for earthquake proofing don’t want to pay for the very best. They only want to look like they are doing something, that way they can keep more of the money instead of actually paying for changes that would cover a true worst case scenario.

Hmmm,

A lot of houses are built in areas that use to flood in California but levys were built to protect them from flooding. Seems that earthquakes could break those levys easy and cause huge flood damage which is not even covered by this article. The idea that only $200 billion dollars worth of damage will be done is very optimistic. Heck in San Fransico that is just about 1,000 houses gone.

I think one big difference between Japan and California is that most of California’s fault lines are land-bound, either inland or along the coastline. Not very likely to cause a tsunami that would head toward the already battered earthquake zone (unlike Japan which got an earthquake-tsunami one-two punch):

California:
http://www.moreno-valley.ca.us/images/faultmap.gif

Japan:
http://elainemeinelsupkis.typepad.com/energy_news/images/2007/07/18/japan_nuclear_reactors_2.jpg

Hey JEYF — if those are Army Corps of Engineer built levees in CA, you can bet there will be some flooding after an earthquake. Take a look at the “Levees.org” web site and see what Sandy Rosenthall and others have to say about their experiences in NOLA following Hurricane Katrina — the flooding there was a man-made disaster:

http://levees.org/

The state is already devasted-financially and socially!

@ DrJJJJ, and politically. Think it is almost all left-wing nuts. So no worries about damages or losses.

We in the US can learn a few things from the Japanese people. Through all of the devastation and unimaginable horrors facing them, the people are calm, collected, understanding, respectful, and have faced this tragedy with the utmost honor. If this earthquake would have happened here, there would have been mass hysteria, looting, killings for twinkies/soda, and the most selfish of reactions compared to that of the Japanese people. Being prepared for this type of disaster requires us to be mindful and considerate to those around us. I truly feel that a tragedy like this would bring out the worst in many people here.

I just want to compliment the reporter on excellent reporting.
Thorough, comprehensive, clear in addressing questions that are on everyone’s mind, without hype. Thank you.

Portable diesel-powered pumps need to be designed for helicopter portability so they can be flown in from a nuke that did not get damaged to one that needs cooling. Petrol stations need to be ready for hook-up of generators to power the fuel pumps during power outages. (Tell the oil companies, not the politicians.)

CA is in such bad shapenow, how would they know when a quake happened?
Sad