Malaysia Stocks-Broker picks, price target changes

KUALA LUMPUR, May 21 (Reuters) - Following is a list of
stock price target changes and smaller cap rating changes. For
large cap ratings changes, please see [MY-RCH]. Company
RIC Bank Rating Tgt Price Change Gamuda
(GAMU.KL) OSK Sell 2.21 T/P upped - Together with
a group of 10 fund managers, we recently met up with Gamuda. We
see potential for higher margin recognition from the Double
Track project. Gamuda is re-focusing on the domestic front and
intends to bid for jobs such as the LRT extension, Kelau dam
and Langat 2. We are turning slightly more optimistic on its
jobs flow, and raise our TP to RM2.21. However, it remains the
most expensive stock within our sector coverage. Maintain sell.
Company RIC Bank Rating Tgt Price Change UMW

(UMWS.KL) Kenanga Hold 6.00 Downgrade -
Downgrade to hold from buy, Target Price maintained at RM6.00
as share price has appreciated, using 7x PER for the automotive
division and 8x PER for the O&G division. Nonetheless UMW has
fundamentally strong long-term growth, competent management and
strong balance sheet to provide M&A opportunities which are
potential re-rating catalysts to the stock.

This item is updated through the day. Company RIC
Bank Rating Tgt Price Change Litrak (LTKH.KL)
Hwang-DBS Buy 2.70 Ups TP -- We expect Litrak to
report 4Q08 net profit of RM16m (-34% QoQ) dragged down by
higher operating expenditure, bonus allocations and a slightly
lower quarter. 4Q09 (Jan-March) is generally a weaker quarter
due to the Chinese New year holidays and shorter number of
working days. Still, we understand on average, traffic at LDP
had been resilient at 460,000-470,000 vehicles per day. FY10
profits will be lower YoY due to the full impact of higher
interest rate from its restructured borrowings, higher interest
cost at Sprint and absence of some one-off items in FY09.

While the higher capex lowers our DCF value, we raise our
PT to RM2.70. This assumes i) a lower discount to our DCF value
of 20% vs 25% and ii) an updated beta of 0.8x (vs 0.9x)
translating into a lower WACC of 7.2% (vs 7.6%). With fears of
expropriation of LDP being allayed, more clarity on associate
Sprint being compensated for cash for the non toll rate hike in
2009 and aggressive dividends expected, we think a lower
discount of 15% is justified. At our PT, the stock will yield
7.4%, way above our market yield of 3.2%. Company RIC
Bank Rating Tgt Price Change UMW Holdings (UMWS.KL)
Affin Reduce 5.25rgt Cuts call/ TP
-- Downgrade earnings by 16-30%; downgrade rating to REDUCE.
We trim FY09-11 earnings by 16-30%, factoring in thinner
margins for Toyotaand Perodua, respectively. We also roll over
our RNAV-based valuation windowto FY10 arriving at a fair
value of RM5.25 (from RM5.80 previously).Essentially, this
reflects earnings downgrade but not the PER multiples we use
tomeasure the Groups businesses. Based on our revised earnings,
thestock is trading at parity to the market and with 9%
downside to our fair value, we are downgrading the stock to
REDUCE (from ADD). Our call is premised on richvaluations. Weak
earnings visibility and lofty valuations will cap upside
potentialand hence our expectation that the stock is unlikely
to outperform the broadermarket in the short term. Having said
that, we continue to appreciate management's prowess, as it
remains profitable despite challenging operatingparameters.
Stepping forward, the Groups active capital management will
alsohelp the company earn brownie points. Company RIC

Bank Rating Tgt Price Change UMW Holdings (UMWS.KL)
Hwang-DBS Fully Valued 3.75rgt Cuts TP -- Annualized 1Q09
net profit of RM66m is significantly weaker than our and
consensus estimates, due to a weak MYR. Revenue from its Toyota
division was is in line with our estimate, but earnings tumbled
69% q-o-q due to a weaker MYR vs. the USD. Associate
contribution fell 21% q-o-q (mainly due to Perodua) because of
a weak MYR vs. JPY. Additionally, WSP, UMWs 23% associate,
reported 23% q-o-q (+35% y-o-y) drop in earnings due to fewer
work days as a result of the Chinese New Year break. UMW
remains in net cash position, at 16 sen/share (4Q08: 26 sen).

Following the earnings downgrade, we lowered our
sum-of-parts price target for UMW to RM3.75 (from RM4.35
previously). Although UMWs equipment division might improve
with the Government's stimulus package, the outlook for auto
sales remains uncertain. Aggressive capex in the O&G sector
could push UMW into a net debt position from 34 sen/share net
cash in FY10F. Company RIC Bank Rating Tgt
Price Change JT In'tl (JTIN.KL) OSK BUY
5.05rgt Ups call/TP
-- Japan Tobacco International's (JTI) results came in within
ours and consensusestimates. 1Q net profit accounted for 31.8%
of our projected figures. This level isfairly similar to
previous years performance whereby 1QFY08 net profitsaccounted
for 31.3% of FY 08 earnings. Marking another good quarter for
the startof the year, JTIs y-o-y revenue growth is on the back
of its strengthening Winstonbrand. Thus, now that we are
revising its revenue and cost projections to betterreflect its
current situation, we tweak our net earnings projections
upwards by 3.4%and 8.7% for FY09 and FY10 respectively. In
result, we also revise our target pricefor JTI from RM4.60 to
RM5.05. We upgrade the stock to BUY from NEUTRAL. No special
dividends were declared. Company RIC Bank
Rating Tgt Price Change JT In'tl (JTIN.KL) Affin
BUY 5.00rgt Ups call -- We remain positive on JTI for its
resilient quality, cash nature of its business, high dividend
yield and importantly, demonstrated ability to improve market
share. Share price has gone ex on 17 March 09 for the RM0.75
capital repayment. We maintain our TP of RM5.00 based on DDM.
(Our DDM valuation is based on unchanged beta of 0.36x, risk
free rate of 3.2%, equity risk premium of 6.5%, and terminal
growth rate of less than 1%). We upgrade our rating to BUY from
ADD, given the more than 15% upside to TP. While JTI lags
behind BAT given in stock liquidity, valuations are less rich.
Besides, its value brand Winston could turn out to be a
potential winner in a downtrading environment. Main rerating
catalysts: (a) sustainability of dividends; and (b) consistent
growth in market share. Company RIC Bank
Rating Tgt Price Change Maybank (MBBM.KL) OSK
Neutral 5.15rgt Ups price -- Maybank is expected to
announce its 3QFY09 results tomorrow. On the back ofhigher loan
loss provisions, reversal of 2QFY09s write-back in general
provisionsbut partially offset by continued growth in net
interest income, we expect 3QFY09snet profit to be marginally
lower y-o-y and q-o-q at 7%-to-10%. In the absence ofany
impairment losses which is only expected to be reflected in
4QFY09, thereshould not be a big swing in 3QFY09 earnings given
that the higher loan lossprovision remains largely within
management and our expectations. Given our14.1% and 9.5%
upgrades in FY10 and FY11 earnings estimates and the lower
costof equity of 10.3% vs 10.8% before, we have upgraded our
fair value from RM4.00 toRM5.15/share based on the Gordon
Growth model and sustainable ROE of 12%.Inview of the strong
surge in its share price, we prefer Public Bank and BCHB
forcheaper PER valuations and comparatively higher ROEs.