METALS-Copper ends lower, inventories hit demand outlook

Thu Nov 12, 2009 3:48pm EST
 
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* Macro data improving but inventory levels worry

* Strikes lend support to cap copper losses

* U.S. weekly jobless claims fall more than expected (Changes headline, adds NEW YORK to dateline, recasts, updates with New York copper prices, adds analyst comments)

By Chris Kelly and Maytaal Angel

NEW YORK/LONDON, Nov 12 (Reuters) - Copper prices ended lower on Thursday, weighed down by a slight rebound in the U.S. dollar and growing concerns about demand weakness after London stockpile levels broke above 400,000 tonnes.

Nickel MNI3 inventories on the London Metal Exchange (LME) rose above 131,700 tonnes, the highest since early 1995, driving prices of the metal down more than 5 percent to their lowest since late July.

Copper for December delivery HGZ9 on the New York Mercantile Exchange's COMEX division shed 1.85 cents to end at $2.9475 a lb, near the lower end of its $2.93 to $3.0010 session range.

LME copper for three-month delivery MCU3 finished down $37 at $6,503 a tonne from $6,540 at the close on Wednesday and compared with a session low at $6,468.

John Gross, publisher of the Copper Journal, said that despite the bearish fundamental backdrop in the copper market, prices remained locked in a higher trend.

"Forget about the fundamentals ... the price trend has been up and a trend is going to remain in place until something occurs to change it. The rising inventories has not changed it and the weakness in demand has not changed it," he said.

LME copper stocks climbed 4,800 tonnes to total 402,125 -- the highest since late April, indicating demand has yet to recover outside China.

"This build in inventory illustrates the fact that the physical market is looking a lot less supportive on the demand side," said Daniel Brebner, metals analyst at Deutsche Bank.

Those demand concerns were echoed by the chief executive of the world's second-biggest copper producer, Freeport McMoRan Copper and Gold (FCX.N). [ID:nLC478998]

Copper's downside push was limited by better-than-forecast jobless data from the United States, the world's largest economy, which also gave a boost to the dollar. [USD/]

The U.S. Labor Department reported that initial state jobless benefit claims fell to 502,000 in the latest week. The consensus forecast was for initial claims of 510,000. [ID:nN11377609] [ID:nOAT004353].

"The whole LME complex reacts to macro news and equity markets, optimism is still there, the dollar is relatively weak despite today's rebound ... but the upside is capped by fundamentals," said Andrey Kryuchenkov, analyst at VTB Capital.  Continued...