Sanofi rivals to gain as Lantus faces sales drop

* Analysts slash Lantus sales forecasts on cancer concerns

* Novo, Merck, Amylin/Lilly, Astra/Bristol could all benefit

* Novo gains 5 pct, Sanofi up 1 pct after last week's losses

By Ben Hirschler, European Pharmaceuticals Correspondent

LONDON, June 29 (Reuters) - Rival drugmakers look set to gain from a possible link between cancer and Sanofi-Aventis's (SASY.PA) long-acting insulin drug Lantus, which has prompted analysts to slash sales forecasts for the product.

Winners could include Denmark's Novo Nordisk (NOVOb.CO) -- provided its rival long-acting insulin Levemir remains free of similar safety issues -- as well as makers of two new types of diabetes medicines, known as GLP-1s and DPP-4s.

Shares in Novo Nordisk, the world leader in diabetes care, jumped 5 percent on Monday as the group moved to distance itself from Lantus by highlighting the technical differences of its artificial, or analogue, versions of insulin. [ID:nLS347093]

Novo stock had fallen 6 percent last week.

Industry analysts said other potential beneficiaries included Amylin Pharmaceuticals (AMLN.O) and Eli Lilly (LLY.N), which market the GLP-1 drug Byetta; Merck & Co (MRK.N), which sells the DPP-4 treatment Januvia; and AstraZeneca (AZN.L) and Bristol-Myers Squibb (BMY.N), which expect to get approval soon for a new DPP-4 treatment called Onglyza.

"We imagine that Novo Nordisk, Merck, Amylin/Lilly will actively step up their marketing efforts in the wake of the Lantus safety concerns," Morgan Stanley analyst Andrew Baum said in a research note.

JP Morgan analysts said Novo could win on two fronts, if Levemir succeeds in winning market from Lantus and the company's GLP-1 drug Victoza, which is about to go on sale in Europe, does well.

Novo's Chief Executive Lars Sorensen, however, was cautious. "It is too early to say what this will mean to the dynamics of the market," he told investors in a conference call on Monday morning.

KEY SALES PROP

Sanofi moved quickly to stress that the findings from four European registry studies identifying a possible link to cancer were inconclusive. The data was released after the market close on Friday. [ID:nLR36465]