E-commerce trends to improve for holidays-comScore

By Alexandria Sage

SAN FRANCISCO, Nov 12 (Reuters) - U.S. online shopping most likely did not see positive growth in the third quarter, but sales trends will turn positive for the holidays due to dismal year-ago results, according to a survey.

"We're seeing clear signs that we've hit the bottom but still no positive growth," said Gian Fulgoni, chairman of analytics firm comScore (SCOR.O), during a Web seminar focusing on the online economy through 2009's third quarter.

The firm said sales trends through the third quarter mirrored last year's results and showed no growth.

Earlier this month, the company estimated that U.S. online retail spending for the third quarter would total $29.6 billion, down 2 percent from the year-ago period.

While e-commerce sales were down 5 percent in July and down 1 percent in August, they were flat in September, Fulgoni said, adding: "At least it's going in the right direction."

U.S. e-commerce sales fell 1 percent in the second quarter, according to comScore data released in August.

"We do anticipate positive growth when we look at the fourth quarter," said Fulgoni. "That's driven by comparisons being easier ... not because inherently we're seeing any strength in consumer spending."

Fulgoni said there were more people buying online but fewer dollars are being spent in each transaction.

In terms of categories, sales of books and magazines and electronics were up in the third quarter, while music, movies and videos, toys and furniture were "significantly down."

That interest in books should continue into the fourth quarter, Fulgoni said, citing a recent price war on books involving such retail giants as Amazon.com (AMZN.O) and Wal-Mart Stores Inc (WMT.N).

"Prices and value are one of the things they deliver very well. Their competitors better pay attention," Fulgoni said.

Wal-Mart said on Thursday that its online division had seen "record hits" after it recently slashed prices on certain books. [ID:nN12419825]

Cyber Monday, the day touted as the start of the online shopping season for the holidays, falls on Nov. 30, relatively late this year, meaning that it could be an even stronger shopping day, Fulgoni said. (Reporting by Alexandria Sage; Editing by Steve Orlofsky)