PREVIEW-GE investors' hopes pinned on industrial businesses

Tue Jul 14, 2009 12:56pm EDT
 
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* What: GE reports second-quarter results

* When: Friday, July 17

* Wall Street sees EPS of 24 cents versus 54 cents

* GE Capital, NBC Universal, consumer units likely drags

* Energy, maintenance possible bright spots

By Scott Malone

BOSTON, July 14 (Reuters) - General Electric Co (GE.N) investors will be watching for the largest U.S. conglomerate's results on Friday with one big question in mind -- how well are its industrial units weathering the recession?

The global downturn and credit crisis turned GE Capital from a money machine into an Achilles heel. NBC Universal and its appliance and unit have also been hard hit, leaving the energy infrastructure division -- which makes electricity producing turbines and equipment used in oil and gas production -- the brightest spot in GE's portfolio.

Wall Street expects second-quarter earnings to fall sharply and many investors look for new equipment orders to be weak. That will lead them to focus on how well GE's maintenance revenue, the money it makes from keeping its already-sold products up and running, and backlog of previous orders is holding up.

"Their businesses ought to be experiencing a flattish to down environment," said Peter Klein, senior portfolio manager at Fifth Third Asset Management in Cleveland, which owns GE shares. "We want to see to what extent that's impacting not only current business but future business. What's the order book look like, the cancellation rate look like?"

GE shares have fallen about 59 percent over the past 12 months, more than double the 25 percent drop of the Dow Jones industrial average .DJI. They were up 1.2 percent Tuesday at $11.60 in afternoon trading on the New York Stock Exchange.

Over the past year the Fairfield, Connecticut-based company has raised $15 billion in capital, cut its dividend and lost its coveted triple-A credit rating.

Analysts, on average, expect second-quarter per-share earnings to be 24 cents versus a comparable 54 cents from continuing operations a year ago, with revenue expected to fall 10 percent to $42 billion.

GE has stopped giving specific per-share profit forecasts, instead providing a "framework" of how it expects its individual units to perform.

"For everything outside of energy infrastructure, expectations are pretty low," said Matt Collins, capital goods analyst at Edward Jones, in St. Louis.

Low expectations have set the stage for several stock rallies over the past week, with shares of U.S. aluminum maker Alcoa Inc (AA.N), No. 3 U.S. railroad CSX Corp (CSX.N) and Dutch conglomerate Philips Electronics (PHG.AS) all surging after their reports were less bleak than investors had feared.  Continued...

 

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