BUY OR SELL-After a week of good news, where is Terex headed?
* Terex shares up sharply over past three months
* Bulls like improved finances, recovering global economy
* Bears see continued end-market woes, inflated valuation
By James B. Kelleher
CHICAGO, May 29 (Reuters) - It's been a hectic week at Terex
Corp (TEX.N), the world's third-largest maker of construction,
mining and road-building equipment.
No, the company's factories, which have been operating well below capacity for months now because of the global downturn, did not suddenly start working three shifts again.
But executives at its Westport, Connecticut, headquarters were busy. First, they reached a tentative $8 million deal to settle civil fraud charges with U.S. regulators without admitting or denying any wrongdoing.
Then, they successfully amended a key credit agreement and raised $600 million -- moves that helped dispel concerns about the company's ability to weather the current downturn without tripping key debt covenants.
The removal of those uncertainties, and the notion that extra cash might help Terex snap up bargains in the M&A market, prompted at least one analyst to breathe a sigh of relief and urge investors to buy Terex shares, which have doubled in value in recent months but are still 80 percent below the 52-week high they reached exactly one year ago.
But lots of analysts remain worried about the company's prospects and wonder if the recent rally, which has Terex trading at more than 50 times expected 2010 earnings, according to Reuters Estimates, will be followed by a correction.
So what should investors do?
BUY
Steve Barger, an analyst at Keybanc Capital Markets, is bullish on Terex with a "buy" rating on its stock.
Barger says this week's successful raising of capital "should remove a significant overhang" of negative investor expectations that surrounded the company. It also gives the company cash to pay down a portion of its senior bank term loan and revolver -- and gives it "ample flexibility to negotiate the current downturn or execute on strategic alternatives, including emerging market joint ventures or small acquisitions" like its purchase, earlier this year, of Italy's Fantuzzi Industries.
Barger also expects commodity demand to pick up along with the global economy, a development that would benefit mining equipment companies like Terex.
SELL
Henry Kirn, an analyst at UBS, is less upbeat. He downgraded Terex and four other machinery makers to "sell" this week, warning the recent run-up in their share prices suggested investors were seeing Ben Bernanke's so-called green shoots of economic recovery "before they have sprouted."
Even if the shares were not trading "above historical valuation parameters," which Kirn believes they are, he worries about continued weakness in key end markets, where customers are still feeling the effects of the credit crunch. Throw in the limited pricing power that Terex and others have because of all the idle used equipment that is sitting around and Kirn says a sell-off may be brewing.
Standard & Poor's is equally downbeat. Their analyst, Mathew Christy, said this week that the share sale and other actions at Terex signaled "continued deterioration" in its results and reiterated his "sell" recommendation on its shares. (Reporting by James Kelleher, editing by Matthew Lewis)
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