Nikkei likely to rise but 10,000 may be hard

TOKYO (Reuters) - Japan's Nikkei average is expected to rise on Tuesday, boosted by resource shares after crude oil surged and exporters gained on a weaker yen, with a try of 10,000 possible but the level unlikely to hold.

Investors may focus on Mizuho Financial Group (8411.T) after three people familiar with the matter said the bank, Japan's second-largest by assets, may decide as early as this week the details of its planned 600 billion yen ($6.3 billion) share sale.

Oil prices rose more than 3 percent on Monday, lifted by word of fresh rebel attacks on oil installations in Nigeria and gains in equity markets. <O/R>

"The Nikkei is likely to rise on a number of factors, including a gain in futures overnight, the slightly weaker yen and higher oil prices, which will lift energy shares," said Hiroichi Nishi, general manager at the equity division of Nikko Cordial Securities.

"Both Japan and the United States are awaiting key indicators later this week for direction, and if these confirm the recession is easing it could set the stage for further gains."

But other analysts said 10,000 was likely to remain beyond reach in the absence of strong buying factors.

On the final day of the quarter, the Nikkei may also be bolstered by "window dressing" -- fund managers selling some of the market's less profitable shares and buying more profitable ones to bolster their portfolios.

Market analysts said the Nikkei was likely to move between 9,700 and 9,950, with a fleeting try of 10,000 possible. It closed at 9,783.47 on Monday.

In a sign the market is likely to jump, Nikkei futures traded in Chicago closed at 10,000, up 1.8 percent from their Osaka close.