UPDATE 1-Oppenheimer cuts earnings estimates on brokers
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May 13 (Reuters) - Oppenheimer cut its earnings estimates on some U.S. brokers based on its outlook on the capital markets and sizable estimated revenue reversals due to a new accounting rule that allows companies to change the way they value financial securities.
"We expect that most of the gains booked in the first quarter will be reversed in the second quarter," analyst Meredith Whitney said in a note to clients. The Financial Accounting Standards Board (FASB), which sets accounting rules in the United States, adopted a fair value option in February that allows companies to irrevocably choose to record the value of certain financial instruments on their balance sheets based on what that instrument could be traded for in a current market transaction.
Under the new rule, losses on securities can be recognized against retained earnings rather than current earnings.
Over the past three quarters reported, the spreads on the credit default swaps for the banks and brokers have widened due to the credit turmoil and liquidity concerns that affected the industry, Whitney said.
"Companies that adopted fair value accounting on their own company debt were able to realize gains as a result of the widening of company credit spreads," she added.
The brokerage cuts its estimates on Goldman Sachs (GS.N), Lehman Brothers LEH.N, Merrill Lynch MER.N and Morgan Stanley (MS.N). The following table shows the changes in earnings estimates: Broker Q2 EPS FY08 EPS FY09 EPS
New Old New Old New
Old Goldman Sachs (GS.N) $3.48 $4.09 $14.65 $17.35 $16.30 $22.25 Lehman Brothers LEH.N $0.72 $1.10 $3.45 $4.43 $4.45 $5.53 Merrill Lynch MER.N $0.20 $1.00 -$0.45 $1.15 $4.05 $5.25 Morgan Stanley (MS.N) $0.94 $1.44 $5.00 $5.85 $5.80 $6.55 (Reporting by Bhaswati Mukhopadhyay in Bangalore; Editing by Amitha Rajan) ((bhaswati.mukho@thomsonreuters.com; within U.S. +1 646 223 8780; outside U.S. +91 80 4135 5800; Reuters Messaging: bhaswati.mukho.reuters.com@reuters.net))
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