INSTANT VIEW: Key points, reaction to durable goods data

Wed Mar 26, 2008 8:57am EDT
 
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NEW YORK (Reuters) - New orders for long-lasting U.S.-made manufactured goods unexpectedly fell 1.7 percent during February and a key gauge of companies' appetite for investment also shrank, according to data on Wednesday that will reinforce concern the economy has chilled.

KEY POINTS: * Economists surveyed by Reuters predicted the report would show overall durable goods orders rose 0.8 percent in February, rebounding from January's revised fall of 4.7 percent. * Non-defense capital goods orders excluding aircraft, a closely watched proxy for business spending, declined 2.6 percent after falling a downwardly revised 1.8 percent in January. * Analysts polled by Reuters had expected this measure to slip 0.1 percent after a previously estimated drop of 1.5 percent.

COMMENTS:

RICHARD DEKASER, CHIEF ECONOMIST, NATIONAL CITY CORP.,CLEVELAND, OHIO:

"Businesses are reluctant to take orders for equipment that lasts three years and more. That's related to diminished confidence and increased uncertainty.

Capital shipment is down significantly so that's going to affect first quarter GDP.

Inventories posed a decent gain and offset the decline in capital shipment."

DREW MATUS, U.S. SENIOR FINANCIAL MARKETS ECONOMIST, LEHMAN BROTHERS, NEW YORK:

"The data points to a negative print overall for GDP in the first quarter and may be overstating weakness. The numbers are not good. There are clouds with no silver lining."

LINCOLN ANDERSON, CHIEF INVESTMENT OFFICER, LPL FINANCIAL SERVICES, BOSTON:

"They don't look particularly good. It's certainly a negative for the market. The one bright spot in this is that the backlog is going up. New orders have fallen, shipments are still well below new orders, so you're getting a build up in the backlog. We're not seeing any order cancellation, so there's still plenty in the pipeline. It leads me to believe we're still relatively stable. And I'm a little suspicious of the huge hit to machinery in one month, its the biggest ever. It just looks like an anomaly to me and I would certainly take it with a grain of salt. In previous bouts it snapped back hard."

SCOTT BROWN, CHIEF ECONOMIST, RAYMOND JAMES & ASSOCIATES, ST PETERSBURG, FLORIDA:

"It is hard to put a lot of weight on any particular month, but (the durable goods report) is consistent with general weakness we have seen in the manufacturing sector as reflected in the Institute for Supply Management manufacturing data."

The durable goods report "is consistent with the economy operating on the edge of a recession if not being actually in one. The Treasury market reaction has been a bit positive. The bond market is also watching the stock market closely."

ROBERT MACINTOSH, CHIEF ECONOMIST, EATON VANCE MANAGEMENT, BOSTON:

"It think it's more evidence that the economy is in a recession and there's no end in sight here at the moment. The key part of the new orders was ex-transportation and that was down more than it was down in January. So you've almost got an accelerating drop-off in the ex-transportation new orders, which is key. So you're getting hit here with not just the consumer, there's weakness here with real old-fashioned manufacturing. That's not a good sign.  Continued...

 

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