Lilly drug seen limited threat to Sanofi's Plavix

By Ben Hirschler

LONDON, Nov 5 (Reuters) - Eli Lilly and Co's (LLY.N) experimental anti-clotting drug prasugrel appears only a limited threat to Sanofi-Aventis SA's (SASY.PA) Plavix, following mixed clinical trial results, industry analysts said on Monday.

Prasugrel proved better able to prevent heart attacks than Plavix, but the drug led to excess bleeding [ID:nN04194979].

"Overall, the results are likely to be viewed as a disappointment by investors," Sanford Bernstein analyst Tim Anderson said in a note.

Anderson cut his 2012 sales forecast for prasugrel by 50 percent to $800 million and said most of this lost prasugrel business would roll over to Plavix, benefiting Sanofi and its U.S. marketing partner Bristol-Myers Squibb Co (BMY.N).

Shares in France's Sanofi, the world's third-biggest drugmaker, were off 0.2 percent in a weaker European stock market by 0905 GMT.

Morgan Stanley analyst Andrew Baum said the prasugrel data released at the American Heart Association annual meeting on Sunday confirmed negative suspicions about the new drug, following the recent suspension of two Phase II clinical trials.

"It is far from clear that prasugrel will reach the market given existing data; irrespective, we believe its commercial potential is minimal," Baum wrote in a research note.

Eli Lilly and Japan's Daiichi Sankyo Co (4568.T) have been developing prasugrel in hopes it will become an alternative to Plavix, a drug with a combined $6.5 billion in annual sales for Bristol and Sanofi that makes it one of the world's top-selling medicines.

Eli Lilly still aims to file an application to market the product with the U.S. Food and Drug Administration by the end of the year.

Deutsche Bank analysts said Eli Lilly clearly faced regulatory hurdles in proving prasugrel's benefits.

If successful, the drug could take 50-80 percent of the market for Plavix in angioplasty -- or artery-widening -- therapy, which might put 1-2 percent of Sanofi's net profit at risk, after discounting by 50 percent for regulatory risk, they said.

Both Plavix and prasugrel prevent clots by keeping blood cells called platelets from sticking together.