Russian oil output to plateau until 2020 - EconMin

MOSCOW, July 24 (Reuters) - Russian oil production will remain largely unchanged until 2020, the Economy Ministry said on Tuesday, broadly confirming the country's existing energy strategy and the outlook by the International Energy Agency.

The ministry said in its long-term economic outlook that it expected Russian production to level off at 530 million tonnes a year (10.6 million barrels per day) between 2015 and 2020.

Russia, the world's second largest oil exporter after Saudi Arabia, produced 9.85 million bpd in June. Russia has been producing more crude than Saudi Arabia in the past year as Riyadh has been capping output below capacity levels.

Last month, the International Energy Agency (IEA), which advises 26 industrialised countries, said it expected Russian oil output to rise to 10.60 million bpd in 2010 but then fall to 10.50 million bpd by 2012.

The IEA also warned that Russia's 20 biggest development projects scheduled to come onstream in the next five years could face delays due to uncertainty over Russia's investment climate and tight drilling capacity.

Russian oil majors LUKOIL (LKOH.MM), Rosneft (ROSN.MM), Surgutneftegaz (SNGS.MM) and TNK-BP (TNBPI.RTS) plan huge greenfield projects in East Siberia, the Caspian and Russia's north. But the rise could be offset by production declines in their traditional base of West Siberia.

New large pipeline projects include a 1.6 million bpd link to China and the Pacific coast, which Russian officials say should not reduce current supplies to Europe.

Russia accounts for over 11 percent of global oil output, while its gas production, the world's largest at around 600 billion cubic metres (bcm) a year, represents one fifth of global gas output.

The ministry said in its forecast gas production should rise to 820 bcm by 2015 and 900 bcm by 2020 as Russia plans to bring onstream large fields in East Siberia, to supply China, and deposits in its Arctic Seas to ship more fuel to Europe.

Some volumes could be liquefied for shipments to the United States and Asia.