PREVIEW-U.S. Treasury on track for record debt refunding
* Treasury details refunding at 9 a.m. (1400 GMT) Nov. 4
* Analysts look for introduction of 30-year TIPS
* Record $80 billion in notes seen on offer
By David Lawder
WASHINGTON, Nov 3 (Reuters) - Despite a temporary pullback in year-end borrowing, the U.S. Treasury on Wednesday is expected to announce a $3 billion increase in 3-, 10- and 30-year debt sales to a record $80 billion and take some cautious steps towards lengthening its debt maturities.
A number of analysts predict that the Treasury will introduce 30-year Treasury inflation-indexed notes, or TIPS, to replace the current 20-year TIPS. Treasury officials recently reiterated that they are considering such a move.
The 30-year TIPS would be better aligned with the benchmark 30-year Treasury bond. The Treasury has also said it is committed to boosting liquidity in the TIPS market after expanding much of its borrowing in recent years with shorter-dated normal bills and notes.
"The 20-year TIPS do not have a direct nominal comparison and thus makes it a peculiar instrument to hedge as well as trade on a breakeven basis," George Goncalves, chief fixed income rates strategist at Cantor Fitzgerald in New York said in a research report.
Analysts largely expect the Treasury to announce on Wednesday that it will hold auctions next week of $40 billion for 3-year notes, $24 billion for 10 year notes and $16 billion for 30-year bonds.
The sales -- $1 billion higher for each maturity compared to the July-September quarter -- will refund about $38 billion of Treasury securities maturing on Nov. 15 and raise $42 billion in new cash.
Treasury is expected to make the announcement at 9 a.m. (1400 GMT).
BORROWING LULL
On Monday, the Treasury said it expected to borrow a net $276 billion through sales of marketable debt in the fourth quarter, about $209 billion less than it previously forecast for the period. This was largely due to the wind-down of a Treasury program to finance Federal Reserve liquidity actions, a move taken in part to avoid breaching the $12.1 trillion statutory limit on Treasury debt.
"It's more of a one-time factor than a sustainable improvement in the borrowing outlook. The next quarter, it's going to go back up," said Kim Rupert, head of fixed income strategy at Action Economics LLC in San Francisco.
"I think we're looking at trillion-dollar deficits for the next 10 years, perhaps. With that outlook, borrowing needs are going to be very high and there is a massive amount of debt that needs to be sold just to roll over what's maturing," Rupert said. "It's pretty precarious actually."
The Treasury's borrowing advisory committee, made up of its 18 primary bond dealers, also is expected to provide updated estimates on Wednesday of fiscal 2010 deficits and net debt issuance, which it pegged in August at $1 trillion to $1.6 trillion. Continued...


