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PREVIEW-BOJ seen standing pat, eyes on global econ risks

Thu Oct 4, 2007 11:13pm EDT
 
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* What: Bank of Japan monetary policy meeting

* When: Oct. 10-11, policy decision likely around 1-2 p.m. (0400-0500 GMT) Oct. 11

* Key overnight call rate target seen staying at 0.50 percent

By Leika Kihara

TOKYO, Oct 5 (Reuters) - The Bank of Japan is seen keeping interest rates on hold this month, despite a desire to raise them, as it waits for more evidence that U.S. subprime woes will not threaten its scenario for modest growth in Japan.

Financial markets have calmed somewhat after last month's turbulence but the central bank is seen holding off on raising rates until it is convinced that the slowdown in the U.S. economy -- Japan's biggest market -- will not seriously harm Japan's export-driven economic recovery.

Market participants expect the BOJ's next rate rise will not come until December or even early next year. Swap contracts on the key policy rate currently price in roughly a 55 percent chance of a rate hike by December and about a 65 percent chance by January. <JPONIBOJ=TRDT>.

"It will take more time for many BOJ board members to be convinced about the outlook for the global economy," said Izuru Kato, chief economist at Totan Research.

"Some might also be thinking that there need to be more positive figures coming out from domestic economic indicators," he said.  Continued...

 

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