* Deal could be smarter for Zale than turnaround
* Zale, Signet talked in the past
* Zale would give Signet another national U.S. chain
By Jessica Hall and Phil Wahba
PHILADELPHIA/NEW YORK, Feb xx Jewelry
store operator Zale Corp is on the rebound after being
left by customers and shunned by vendors during the recession,
and its best hope to prosper may be a marriage to larger rival
Signet Jewelers Ltd.
Zale, which operates the Zales and Gordon's chains, has made
strides in the last two years by closing unprofitable stores and
adding brands like Vera Wang bridal jewelry at its venerable
88-year-old namesake chain.
But Zale, which has lost hundreds of millions of dollars in
the last three years, is still recovering from a collapse in
sales during the financial crisis, when it lost many shoppers to
Signet's Kay and also scared suppliers.
In contrast, Signet's U.S. business, which also includes the
more upscale Jared, is flush with cash thanks to sales gains and
marketing firepower Zale can only dream of. Signet also owns its
own credit card business.
There may be a limit on how much Zale can accomplish on its
own and it may be prompted to look for a buyer, investment
bankers and analysts said.
"The Zales name has taken a beating, but it's still a brand
that people know. It's a brand that could get resurrected with
the right people and resources behind it," said one retail
investment banker who declined to be named because he was not
authorized to speak to the media.
"Signet is more skilled at marketing, so with them at the
helm at Zale, it could become a prominent name again,"
the banker said.
Zale declined to comment. Signet could not be immediately
reached for comment.
In 2009, Zale went through a severe liquidity crisis that
saw it cancel orders, alienating vendors, many of which
preferred to do business with Signet.
Zale has a current market capitalization of $97 million. Its
long-term liabilities total $494 million.
"It's a turnaround company so there is risk, but it wouldn't
be an expensive gamble. Signet couldn't build a second national
chain for what they could get Zale for," said the banker.
Two years ago, Signet said building a new nationwide U.S.
chain would take too much time and be too expensive and that an
acquisition would be the second route. Signet, which also
operates the upscale Jared chain, gets 80 percent of revenue
from the United States and the rest in Britain.
In 2006, Zale ended tentative, short-lived merger talks with
Signet, which have been a blessing for the latter: Zale's shares
are now worth one-ninth of what they were at the time.
"They've talked before. They know each other. They reach
similar demographics. It would be a mismatch for someone like a
Tiffany to buy Zale, but in this case there are similarities,"
said a second retail investment banker who declined to
be named because he was not authorized to speak to the media.
"The best thing that could happen to Zale would be to get
taken over by someone with deeper pockets and greater marketing
expertise -- and Signet fits that bill," the second banker said.
A deal would have a lot of synergies -- such as
cost savings in the back office and management -- and
give the combined company better clout with vendors, bankers
said. As a result, Signet could afford to pay as much as $5 to
$6 a share, or $161 million to $193 million, and still have
the deal add to earnings after the first year, bankers
If Signet did buy Zale and wanted to close overlapping
stores, it would not have to wait long. The leases of some 230
stores out of 1,160 stores, excluding its Pagoda kiosks, expire
this year, and about 60 percent of leases are up for renewal by
the end of 2015.
Zale operated a combined 818 Zales and Gordon's stores as of
July 31, 2011, compared to 1,045 three years earlier, helping
same-store sales to rise. The chains account for more than 60
percent of Zale sales.
A deal would be unlikely to run afoul of regulators since
the $60 billion U.S. jewelry market is so fragmented, bankers
said. According to IBISWorld, Signet has a 9.7 percent share of
the U.S. jewelry market, more than double Zale's 4.6 percent.
Still, Signet would be buying a work-in-progress and it
might be wiser to build solo.
"If Signet wants to expand fast -- Zale is a smart option. If
they want to take a more tempered approach, organic growth might
be more attractive," said one consumer banker, who declined to
be named. The banker was not authorized to speak to the media.
Zale's main appeal is its cheap price tag, Canadian assets
and national U.S. presence, bankers said.
Since the fiscal year that ended July 31, 2008, right before
the financial crisis erupted, Zale has had total net losses of
But after a severe liquidity crisis during the 2009-2010
holiday season that had many wondering about Zale's prospects,
things have improved. Sales at stores open at least a year rose
7.1 percent, excluding the impact of currency, in the fiscal
year ended July 31, 2011. And they have continued to rise.
In May 2010, Zale secured funding from private equity Golden
Gate Capital in exchange for giving the private equity firm
warrants to buy about 25 percent of the retailer's shares.
Golden Gate declined to comment on its stake in Zale.
One of Zale's most attractive assets is Peoples Jewellers,
Canada's largest jewelry chain. It would allow Signet to tap an
international market beyond Britain, where sales have been tepid
What's more, Zale's Canadian chains, which also include
Mappins, last fiscal year had sales of $1.4 million per store,
up 16.1 percent from 2009 and far above the $1.18 million per
Despite the efforts to close underperforming stores, Zales
stores are far less productive that Signet's Kay, where sales
last year were $1.7 million per store
Still, despite the inexpensive price tag on Zale, some
analysts think Signet has room to grow on its own.
Lazard Capital Market analyst Jennifer Davis said Signet
still has room to grow through Kay locations out of traditional
malls and it could add as many as 300 Jared stores nationally.