INSTANT VIEW: Key points and reaction to retail sales
NEW YORK (Reuters) - Total sales at U.S. retailers weakened modestly in April, the government reported on Tuesday, but outside the hard-pressed auto sector they showed more resiliency than many analysts had anticipated.
KEY POINTS: * The Commerce Department said overall retail sales declined 0.2 percent to a seasonally adjusted $378.1 billion, after a 0.2 percent rise in March. That was slightly more than the 0.1 percent decrease that economists surveyed by Reuters had forecast for sales in April. * But excluding autos, April sales were up 0.5 percent after a 0.4 percent March pickup - significantly better than the 0.2 percent sales increase that had been anticipated. * The Federal Reserve has cut official interest rates 3-1/4 percentage points to 2 percent since last September to shield the economy from a credit crunch sparked by the housing crisis, hoping to keep consumers from choking off spending that fuels two-thirds of U.S. economic activity. * In April, sales of building materials gained 1.9 percent, more than reversing March's 1.5 percent fall. General merchandise store sales were up 0.5 percent, well ahead of March's 0.1 percent rise.
COMMENTS:
ROBERT MACINTOSH, CHIEF ECONOMIST, EATON VANCE CORP,
BOSTON:
"The retail sales number is pretty much what people thought. They thought it would be off a little bit for the month. The key here is ex-autos and gas, the number was up a fair amount. So net , I think it's a report that tells you the economy is very weak, but if we are in a recession it's going to be a real short one."
IAN SHEPHERDSON, CHIEF U.S. ECONOMIST, HIGH FREQUENCY
ECONOMICS, VALHALLA, NEW YORK:
"Half the rise in sales ex-autos was due to a 0.5 percent increase in food sales, thanks largely to higher prices, and a 1.9 percent rebound in sales of building materials, etc. The latter is trending rapidly downwards - even after the April rise sales have fallen at a 6.7 percent annualized rate in the past three months compared to the previous three months - but the monthly data are noisy. Expect a big drop next month. Sales ex-food, gas, autos and building mats rose 0.3 percent in both March and April but the year-over-year rate is trending remorselessly lower; worse to come."
KURT KARL, CHIEF U.S. ECONOMIST, SWISS RE, NEW YORK:
"Excluding autos, the report was pretty decent. And that's good because it doesn't point to recession. The consumer is still out there spending. But recent data has been mixed and judging by it it's been hard to say where inflation is going and where growth is going. For the Fed, a 2 percent benchmark rate is a comfortable place to seat for a while."
MICHELLE MEYER, ECONOMIST, LEHMAN BROTHERS, NEW YORK:
"It was considerably better than expected. The headline number declined but it was entirely an auto story, which was to be expected. Outside autos, the spending is certainly above expectations and it seems to be widespread. It's consistent with the Fed on hold for the near-term, and it does suggest growth will be a little stronger in the first and second quarters."
SUBODH KUMAR, CHIEF INVESTMENT STRATEGIST, SUBODH KUMAR &
ASSOCIATES, TORONTO, CANADA: Continued...
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