Could U.S. military gains in Iraq outlast Bush?

By David Morgan

WASHINGTON (Reuters) - With an intensifying White House race drawing attention to his legacy, President George W. Bush could leave office without the baggage of complete failure in Iraq thanks to new U.S. military gains, some analysts say.

American success at quelling sectarian and insurgent violence has raised hopes that the relatively calmer conditions of the past few months in Iraq might last into early 2009, when the next U.S. president takes over.

"The overall prediction has to be that George Bush will escape this without an obviously visible abject failure. It may become that again over time. But right now, it looks like Bush will escape by the skin of his teeth," said Michael O'Hanlon of the Brookings Institution.

O'Hanlon, who drew attention last July when he expressed optimism about the U.S. mission in Iraq in a New York Times column, estimates the odds of a major deterioration during Bush's remaining 14 months in office at less than 50 percent.

Bush's so-called surge strategy, which placed an extra 30,000 troops in Iraq this year to stabilize Baghdad and its environs, has contributed to a steep decline in violence the past two months, statistics released in recent weeks show.

Violence has fluctuated widely since the 2003 U.S. invasion. But analysts say recent improvements may continue because of more effective U.S. tactics and a rebellion against al Qaeda in Iraq by Sunni leaders in Anbar province.

Roadside bombing incidents have fallen by more than half since March. U.S. military deaths in October were at their lowest level since March 2006, and Iraqi civilian deaths were down about two-thirds from a 2007 high in January.

O'Hanlon said he believed the less violent conditions are likely to endure until Bush leaves office, despite the planned withdrawal of 20,000 U.S. combat troops by next July.

"It'll still be a lot of people getting killed," he said. "But the trajectory we're on is for muddling along into some type of gradually improving semi-stability."

O'Hanlon is not alone in expectations for Bush to achieve a grim victory by avoiding the worst of Iraq legacies.

"The Bush administration has managed to basically gain enough time to come to the end of the administration without any serious deterioration in Iraq," said Joost Hiltermann, a long-time critic of Bush policy in Iraq at the Brussels-based International Crisis Group.

"He's bought himself enough time to sit out his presidency: applause. Bush won in that sense," Hiltermann added.

UNPREDICTABLE

But others said stability in Iraq cannot be predicted, given the tenuous nature of political relations between Sunnis and Shi'ites and the fact that an estimated 15 percent of the country's population has been displaced by violence.

"This isn't anything that any of us can assign probabilities to," said Anthony Cordesman of the Center for Strategic and International Studies.