One in three Americans expects recession

By Emily Kaiser

WASHINGTON (Reuters) - One in three Americans expects a U.S. recession in the next year, and less than a quarter think home prices will rise, according to a Reuters/Zogby poll released on Wednesday.

Hispanics and African-Americans were more likely than whites to predict a recession, reflecting a deeper sense of job and economic anxiety among minorities, who represent a disproportionately large share of lower-income groups.

"There has been much, much, much more talk about a recession in the last 30 days than there had been before," pollster John Zogby said, noting that the key factors behind the latest downturn worries were issues that literally hit home for the general public -- housing and jobs.

The survey of 1,011 likely voters was conducted September 13-16, about a week after a government report showed an unexpected drop in jobs in August, the first such decline in four years. The poll has a margin of error of plus or minus 3.1 percentage points.

Nearly 31 percent said they expected home prices in their area to stay about the same in the next year, while 35.5 percent expected them to drop a little, and 8.5 percent thought they would drop a lot.

Only 4.2 percent expected home prices to rise a lot, while 18.7 percent thought they would go up a little. The rest were not sure.

"That's massive," Zogby said. "Homes are seen not only as part of living the American dream, but they're also seen as an investment. This sort of anticipation is very unhealthy because it drives behavior. This is like consumer confidence. When you add it all together, it is (the makings of) an economic slowdown."

SPENDING SLOWDOWN