Top general "90 percent-plus" sure on U.S. missile defense

By Jim Wolf

WASHINGTON (Reuters) - U.S. ground-based interceptor missiles stand a better-than-90-percent chance of thwarting a "rogue nation" ballistic missile attack on the United States in the next five years, the second highest-ranking military officer told Congress on Tuesday.

Giving the most bullish military assessment to date on the Boeing Co-managed system's capabilities, Marine Corps Gen. James Cartwright, vice chairman of the Joint Chiefs of Staff, replied "ninety percent plus" when asked the odds of thwarting a long-range missile that could be fired by North Korea.

Cartwright was responding to a question from Senate Armed Services Committee member Evan Bayh, an Indiana Democrat, about what he would tell President Barack Obama about the chances of defeating such a long-range missile attack.

In follow-up remarks, he said his 90 percent-confidence level reflected the limited threat foreseeable for the next two to five years from countries like North Korea and Iran, including the number of missiles they could fire in a "salvo."

By contrast, Charles McQueary, who retired as the Pentagon's top independent testing official last month, said in a report in December -- four years after the Ground-based Midcourse system (GMD) was deployed for the first time -- that "GMD flight testing to date will not support a high degree of confidence in its limited capabilities."

Chicago-based Boeing is the prime contractor for the GMD system, which includes a network of interceptor missiles in underground silos in Alaska and California cued by satellites, radar stations and other sensors.

The system's top subcontractors include Northrop Grumman Corp, Raytheon Co, Lockheed Martin Corp and Orbital Sciences Corp.

Deputy Defense Secretary William Lynn, who also testified before the Armed Services panel, said North Korean and Iranian missiles presented "a very real and growing threat" that the Obama administration was seeking to meet through revised missile-defense spending plans in its fiscal 2010 budget request.

"That's what's behind much of the changes that you've seen in the missile defense budget," he said.

Both Iran and North Korea had shown "predilections" to transfer ballistic missiles as well as missile know-how to third parties, Lynn added, terming this "a very unsettling and dangerous prospect."

The Obama administration is seeking $7.8 billion for the Pentagon's Missile Defense Agency in the 2010 budget year that begins October 1, down about $1.2 billion from 2009, although it says the proliferation of ballistic missiles of all ranges continues.

(Reporting by Jim Wolf; Editing by Brian Moss)