Caribbean tropical wave may grow into Gulf storm

NEW YORK (Reuters) - A tropical wave over the western Caribbean Sea between Honduras and Cuba has a moderate chance -- 30 to 50 percent -- of developing into a tropical cyclone over the next 48 hours, the U.S. National Hurricane Center forecast Friday.

The NHC does not expect significant development of the system before it reaches the Yucatan Peninsula in Mexico early Saturday, but "conditions are forecast to become a little more favorable once it reaches the southern Gulf of Mexico late Saturday or Sunday."

Most weather models project the system will move northwest across eastern Yucatan and reach the central Gulf of Mexico over the next five days or so.

If the system develops into a tropical storm with winds of 39 to 73 miles per hour, it would be named Ana, the first named storm of the Atlantic hurricane season.

The mere possibility of development has made some short traders nervous and helped prop up natural gas futures prices ahead of the weekend, energy traders said.

The energy market watches for storms that could enter the Gulf of Mexico and threaten U.S. oil and natural gas platforms and refineries along the coast.

The commodities market likewise watches for storms that could hit agriculture crops like citrus and cotton in Florida and other states along the coast to Texas.

(Reporting by Scott DiSavino; Editing by John Picinich)