By Gilbert Kreijger
AMSTERDAM Feb 28 The Dutch government finally
conceded on Thursday it would not meet the budget deficit target
set by the European Union this year, given its weak economy and
a reluctance to make more cutbacks.
The Netherlands has taken a hard line on the need for
austerity to tackle the debt crisis in Europe's south. While its
fiscal problems are minor compared with those of Italy, Spain,
Greece or Portugal, the failure to meet the target is a blow for
Finance Minister Jeroen Dijsselbloem, who heads the Eurogroup of
euro zone finance ministers.
The decision may also lend support to a view that big
spending cuts and tax rises are not resolving Europe's problems.
New forecasts from economic agency CPB on Thursday showed
the Dutch deficit would hit 3.3 percent of gross domestic
product this year and 3.4 percent in 2014, exceeding the EU
target of 3 percent, and increasing the risk of a cut in one of
the euro zone's few remaining triple-A sovereign credit ratings.
"These figures make clear that a budget deficit target of no
more than 3 percent in 2013 is not feasible," Prime Minister
Mark Rutte said in a statement.
"The government will look at what additional measures are
needed to meet the 3 percent target in 2014."
The Netherlands is considered part of the euro zone 'core':
fiscally conservative and export driven, like Germany.
Rutte, the Liberal Party leader who was re-elected to power
in September, has long maintained that the Netherlands would
meet the deficit rules this year, and has strongly criticised
other countries for failing to meet EU targets in the past.
But he is now faced with an economy in recession, rising
unemployment, deteriorating consumer confidence, and a lack of
political will to impose yet more spending cuts.
Barely a week goes by without a Dutch company announcing job
cuts. Dutch cooperative lender Rabobank said on
Thursday it would cut 3,000 jobs this year and next; its rival
ING earlier this month announced 2,400 job cuts in the
Netherlands and Belgium.
"For 2013 it would be a good step to say: We will give the
economy a chance to recover, we will not cut the budget further
this year to reach 3 percent at all costs. We'll explain that in
Brussels, we'll have to do that," Labour Party leader Diederik
Samsom, a partner in the ruling coalition, told broadcaster
"It doesn't make sense to make budget cuts in 2013. We will
still be a shrinking economy then. In 2014, the economy will
recover, will show growth again," Samsom said.
The three main rating agencies have warned of a potential
downgrade of the Netherlands' coveted triple-A sovereign rating,
citing the euro zone debt crisis and an economy struggling with
its third recession since 2009.
Dijsselbloem, also charged with steering the broader euro
zone out of crisis, has already said he is looking at extra
austerity measures and is talking to opposition parties for
He told reporters that he expected the cabinet to announce
measures on Friday to cope with the deficit but it was not clear
whether these would be steps for 2013 or 2014. In general
economists say he has few options to cut spending or raise extra
funds at short notice.
The government is already executing a 16 billion euro ($21
billion) austerity programme over the 2013-2017 period and made
reducing the budget deficit and reforming the economy a top
priority when it took office in November.
The CPB said the 3 percent target would be exceeded by 2
billion euros this year and 3 billion euros next, hit by a 0.5
percent contraction in the economy this year before growing 1.0
percent in 2014.
"Private consumption will decline sharply in 2013, just as
in 2012, by 1.5 percent. Housing investments will fall even
stronger: by 7 percent," the government's forecaster said.
The cabinet must submit its annual budget plan to the
European Commission in April, something which all euro zone
member states are obliged to do.
EU rules allow a country to take more time to reduce its
deficit if there are difficult economic circumstances.
EU Economic and Monetary Affairs Commissioner Olli Rehn said
last week the Netherlands was taking the right structural steps
to improve its government finances and reform its economy.