* EBRD halves regional growth forecast to 1.4 pct from 2.7
pct for 2014
* Warns more sanctions could cut growth to near zero, put
Russia in recession
* Ukraine economy seen plunging 7 pct in 2014, no growth in
* Turkey's forecasts lowered to 2.5 from 3.3 percent
(Adds chief economist, Latvia growth forecast)
By Marc Jones and Karolina Slowikowska
WARSAW, May 14 The European Bank for
Reconstruction and Development slashed its regional growth
forecasts in half on Wednesday and warned of damage to the world
economy if the crisis in Ukraine sends Russia into recession.
The bank has begun its annual two-day meeting in Warsaw
against the backdrop of the worst East-West standoff since the
Cold War ended 25 years ago, set off by Russia's annexation of
Crimea and alleged backing for separatists in eastern Ukraine.
"What we are worried about, really, is the potential
escalation of the sanctions, particularly on the financial
system," EBRD chief economist Erik Berglof told a news
The combination of the Ukraine-Russia geopolitical crisis
and slowdowns in other big economies like Turkey meant growth in
the region was now forecast to reach just 1.4 percent in 2014
rather than the 2.7 percent predicted in January, the EBRD said.
Faltering growth in the emerging markets that are the focus
of EBRD activities is potentially bad news for Europe's
developed economies as well. They look to dynamic growth in
emerging countries to pull up their own lackluster economies.
Russia's economy was already slowing before its annexation
of Crimea drew international sanctions. The extra strain means
growth is now likely to flatten this year and reach just 0.6
percent in 2015, the EBRD said. It had forecast growth of 2.5
percent this year.
Worse still, Russia, the region's biggest economy, could
fall into recession if more serious sanctions are imposed, the
EBRD warned - and that could drag down growth worldwide.
Even under current conditions, Ukraine's economy is expected
to plunge 7 percent this year and not grow at all next year. If
its crisis escalates, the damage would be even worse.
"Under a more negative scenario, the Russian economy would
enter recession and output contraction in Ukraine would deepen,"
the EBRD said in a report.
"Coupled with increased risk aversion in global markets,
this would bring growth in the EBRD region to a standstill. At
this point, the Russia/Ukraine crisis would start impacting the
Latvian Finance Minister Andris Vilks said at the EBRD
meeting he may lower his forecast for gross domestic product
growth because of the Ukraine crisis. Latvia depends on Moscow
for trade and energy, and it has already revised the forecast to
4 percent from 4.3 percent.
The Cold War-tinged unrest was not the only source of
downward pressure the EBRD identified.
Lending is slowing in the region as Austrian, Italian,
German and Greek banks retrench following the euro crisis. High
levels of bad loans are prevalent, most notably in ex-Yugoslav
states, Bulgaria and Romania.
Political strains are also widespread. Poland may relax its
fiscal discipline to win election votes next year. Hungary's
unorthodox monetary policy remains under scrutiny.
Euro zone member Slovenia is back in the spotlight after its
government collapsed last month, with a rescue plan to cut
public debt and deal with non-performing bank loans still
"The political situation is uncertain again; having said
that, there is a strong commitment to restructuring," Berglof,
the EBRD chief economist, said.
The EBRD has expanded its reach in recent years to include
Mongolia, Turkey and the economies affected directly or
indirectly by the 2011 Arab Spring, such as Morocco, Egypt,
Tunisia and Jordan.
The EBRD also cut its forecast for Turkey, another of the
big economies in the bank's area. It now predicts 2.5 percent
growth, down from the previous 3.3 percent.
It added, however, that Turkey had performed better than
some had predicted at the peak of its market turmoil early in
(For full forecasts click here)
(Writing by Marc Jones and Christian Lowe; Editing by Larry