U.S. recession more likely in next 6 months-CS

NEW YORK, Jan 17 (Reuters) - There is more than a 50 percent chance that the United States will be in a recession in the next six months following this week's stock market rout, Credit Suisse said on Thursday.

The investment bank's six-month recession probability model currently shows a 56 percent probability of a recession by midyear, surpassing 54 percent in November. In October, the model showed less than a 5 percent chance of a recession.

"The falling stock market is punishing," Jay Feldman, an economist at Credit Suisse, said of the main factor behind the spike in the likelihood of a recession.

The stock market plunged on Thursday, with the benchmark Standard & Poor's 500 index .SPX plummeting to a 15-month low on dismal reports on manufacturing in the Mid-Atlantic region and on housing starts and a huge multibillion-dollar loss at Merrill Lynch MER.N. For details, see [.N].

Credit Suisse's 56 percent forecast compared with a recession probability of 45 percent that was the consensus of 250 economists polled by Reuters from Jan. 11-17. [ID:nL16268328]

While the Credit Suisse model points to higher chances of a recession, Feldman said he and other economists at the bank do not see a recession, or contraction in the economy as measured by the gross domestic product (GDP) this year.

They forecast that real GDP will grow at a 1.5 percent annualized rate in the first quarter, up from a 1.2 percent rate in the fourth quarter.

GDP will slow to a 1.0 percent annualized rate in the second quarter before accelerating to 1.3 percent in the third quarter and 2.3 percent in the fourth quarter, according to Credit Suisse economists. (Reporting by Richard Leong; Editing by Jonathan Oatis)