* Shift from street battles to ballot box to aid economy
* Mursi must implement unpopular economic reforms
* Disparate opposition needs to keep united to compete
* Islamists still have formidable grass-roots network
By Edmund Blair
CAIRO, Dec 16 President Mohamed Mursi now seems
assured of pushing through Egypt's new, distinctly Islamist
constitution - but by a margin slim enough to embolden his
opponents in next year's parliamentary election.
That could be good news for Egypt's nascent democracy and
its battered economy if it encourages political rivals to fight
their battles at the ballot box rather than in the streets,
where clashes have alarmed both investors and tourists.
Yet Mursi will have little respite as he braces for the
unenviable task of winning public support for urgent economic
policies to rein in a crushing budget deficit that are bound to
be unpopular in a nation deeply divided by his actions.
"The results of the referendum do not put an end to this
state of polarisation in Egyptian politics," said Mustapha Kamal
Al-Sayyid, a professor of political science at Cairo University.
The Muslim Brotherhood's party, which propelled Mursi to
power in a June election, said its unofficial tally for
Saturday's first-round vote on a controversial constitution
showed 57 percent of voters backed it, supporting liberal
opposition arguments that many felt the document too partisan.
A second round of the vote now looks likely to go the same
way on Saturday, as it will be held in districts with more
Islamist sympathisers. But even if another, possibly bigger Yes
vote pushes the constitution through, the poll on a national
charter has underlined the political divisions that Egypt faces.
"This puts major hurdles before President Mursi because the
economic measures he planned to introduce ... require a national
consensus," said Sayyid, arguing that the Islamists, who have
dominated other ballots this year and last, were losing ground.
Mursi's first attempt to implement tax increases, about a
week before the vote, lasted only a few hours before he withdrew
them amid howls of public anger, which his opponents exploited.
His prime minister has promised a "national dialogue" to
explain the government's determination to protect the poor, but
Mursi cannot wait long as the measures are seen as essential to
securing a vital $4.8-billion International Monetary Fund loan;
it was delayed by a month immediately after his policy U-turn.
Leftists, socialists, Christians and liberal-minded Muslims,
freshly united in opposition to Mursi's Nov. 22 decree to expand
his powers in order to push through the Islamist-tinged
constitution, have capitalised on public anger over the economy.
After liberals split their voter base in previous elections,
the Brotherhood's party may still be counting on the opposition
fracturing before the next parliamentary election, due a couple
of months or so after the constitution is approved.
"If the secular forces fail to be united, this will in the
end lead to a greater gain for the Freedom and Justice Party,"
the deputy leader of the Brotherhood's political party, Essam
el-Erian, told Reuters. He also dismissed evidence of divisions
in society as something present "all over the world".
But Islamists may find criticism starting to stick. Some
Egyptians who voted Yes were not Islamist loyalists but instead
were simply weary after two exhausting years of turmoil since
military-backed strongman Hosni Mubarak was overthrown.
Their slogan throughout the referendum build-up was a call
for "stability" so that the economy could be put right.
Those Egyptians, along with others who voted No, may be more
receptive to opposition charges that Mursi is mishandling the
economy and out of touch with the poor while he pushes through
measures seen as favouring the Brotherhood and its allies.
That is likely to be an increasingly fierce battleground as
the parliamentary election looms.
"The opposition comes out of this in a stronger position,"
said Shadi Hamid of the Brookings Doha Center. "Mursi and the
Brotherhood were hoping for a decisive victory to claim
vindication. But they are not going to be able to do that.
"This is a good result for Egypt's democratic process," he
added. "It shows non-Islamists can gain ground against Islamists
in democratic elections. They do have an interest in shifting
the battle from the street to institutionalised politics."
There are signs of a trend. When a first, temporary,
constitutional framework was put to the vote just weeks after
Mubarak's downfall - also opposed by liberals and backed by
Islamists - it secured more than 75 percent of the vote.
Islamists then swept up a big majority in voting for the
interim parliament, securing about 70 percent of seats. But
Mursi's presidential win in June was less convincing; he took
about 52 percent of votes against a Mubarak-era general.
Saturday's vote confirms that non-Islamists are starting to
form a more credible challenge. Yet more liberal-minded
politicians still have their work cut out.
The Brotherhood, founded in the 1920s, has built up an
unrivalled social support and charity network across Egypt,
expanding even as Mubarak and his predecessors oppressed them.
That has helped them do well in the more localised politics
of parliamentary polls, turning out the vote in neighbourhoods.
Liberals have no such history of organisation. Though the
Popular Current movement of leftist Hamdeen Sabahy and Mohamed
ElBaradei's Constitution Party have broadened their appeal, they
boast nothing like the grass-roots presence of the Islamists.
Mursi may also have a chance to weather the economic storm.
At least some investors may be happy to see a constitution in
place as it resolves one of their worries that the transition to
democracy was drifting, even if plenty more concerns remain.
After the unofficial referendum result, Egypt's benchmark
stock market index rose 2.7 percent, though the pound is still
bumping along at its weakest against the dollar in eight years.
"Given how severe the downside risks seemed just a week or
so ago, a fiercely contested referendum attracting a decent
turnout is a positive outcome," said HSBC economist Simon
"However polarised the debate may have become, if it stays
within the institutions of the state, then there is some
prospect of the political transition moving forward," he said.
Nevertheless, the result does not mean an end to protests.
A spokeswoman for the Popular Current, Heba Yassin, said
Egyptians were still "inflamed and furious" and added that the
"final word will come from the Egyptian street".