Windows 7 release may test Apple's winning streak

By Gabriel Madway

SAN FRANCISCO (Reuters) - Apple Inc's Mac computers have steadily gained market share over the years, a winning streak that may be tested by next week's launch of Microsoft Corp's new Windows 7 operating system.

Few expect the new software to dent Apple's standing in the market in the long run, given the company's premium position and the fact that its dedicated user base largely ignores events in the Windows universe.

However, some analysts warn that Windows 7 -- which is garnering strong early reviews -- may initially slow Apple's advancement and apply more pressure on Mac prices, particularly in the United States.

Microsoft's Vista operating system, released in early 2007, was plagued by problems and bad press. For Apple, this meant an opportunity that the company seized upon.

But if the new Microsoft offering works as expected, Apple may not be able to count on Windows' clumsiness as a sales driver.

For its part, Apple expressed little concern about the new Windows.

"New Mac users continually tell us that they are tired of all the headaches with Windows, and they want the ease of use, stability and security of a Mac," spokesman Bill Evans said. "At the end of the day Windows 7 is still just Windows."

And some analysts argue that Windows 7 hype might end up helping Mac by enticing customers into stores and lifting overall computer sales amid the marketing hoopla.

"The Apple story is pretty idiosyncratic, company-specific, not really dependent on other parties," said Broadpoint Amtech analyst Brian Marshall, citing research showing that Microsoft's launches over the years have acted as catalysts for Mac sales.

Although its iPhone gets more press, Apple still derives the largest chunk of its sales from computers. Macs generated about 40 percent of the company's revenue in the June quarter.

Marshall thinks Apple can double its share of the computer market over the next five to 10 years. Enderle Group principal analyst Rob Enderle agreed that the Windows 7 launch could end up boosting Mac sales.

"It could very well be a tide that lifts all boats," he said. "Windows 7, with a lot of marketing dollars, is going to drive a lot of people into stores. The extra traffic could actually help Apple."

But Enderle cautioned: "Windows 7 is good. It doesn't have the problems Vista did, so gaining share gets a lot tougher."

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Although Apple is not among the top five PC makers globally, it ranks No. 4 in the United States, according to research group Gartner, with a market share of 8.7 percent. Three years ago, Apple's U.S. share was 4.6 percent.