(Adds OPEC, non-OPEC forecasts)
Feb 11 The Energy Information Administration on
Tuesday lowered its U.S. crude oil production forecast for this
year and next due to recent severe weather but said improving
technology could boost shale oil output over the next two years.
In its latest monthly short-term energy outlook, the
information arm of the U.S. Department of Energy cut its 2014
crude oil production forecast by 100,000 barrels per day (bpd)
to 8.4 million bpd and by 100,000 bpd to 9.2 million bpd for
"The U.S. crude oil production forecast for both 2014 and
2015 was revised downward ... because of indications that severe
weather this winter has caused temporary slowdowns in completing
new wells," the EIA said in its report.
However, it said forecasts for onshore U.S. crude
production, which includes soaring shale oil output, have
undershot actual production, as companies improved the
productivity of their fields by experimenting with their
"Technological innovation may cause a faster rise in
drilling productivity than currently forecast," the EIA said,
adding if that happens, its onshore estimate of 5.7 million bpd
in 2013 and forecast of 7.1 million bpd in 2015 would be
Offshore oil production in the Gulf of Mexico should grow
from 1.3 million bpd in 2013 to 1.6 million bpd in 2015, based
on industry plans. But here, the risk is to the downside from
unpredictable weather conditions including hurricanes, which
lead to outages and project delays, the EIA said.
The EIA laid out its global production forecasts in the
report. It increased the 2014 forecast for production by
OPEC-member countries by almost 300,000 bpd to 35.73 million
At the same time, it decreased its forecast for production
out of countries that are not members of the Organization of the
Petroleum Exporting Countries by 110,000 bpd to 55.96 million
bpd this year and by 90,000 bpd to 57.46 million bpd next year.
The EIA also revised downwards its OPEC surplus production
capacity 4.6 percent, or 120,000 bpd, to 2.54 million bpd. The
industry and oil traders keep a watch on the global surplus
capacity during times of significant supply disruptions.
Unplanned outages in Libya and Nigeria, sanctions on Iran
that had cut supplies to the world and other disruptions
accounted for 3.2 million bpd of oil at the end of 2013.
"OPEC members continue to account for most of the global
supply disruptions, averaging 2.3 million bpd in January," EIA
(Reporting by Sabina Zawadzki; Editing by Cynthia Osterman)